Author: FX

After months of easing, the Governing Council decided that 2.00% is the magic number—the “neutral” rate where they can sit back and let the economy hum. But if you listened to Philip Lane today, the humming sounds more like a sputter.Lane’s presentation at the CBI workshop was a masterclass in saying “we are done cutting” while simultaneously showing us a dozen charts explaining why the economy is barely keeping its head above water.Lane is pinning the hold on sticky domestic costs. The data shows services inflation is proving to be a problem, refusing to break below 3% in the near…

Prior was 4.10mHome sales change +0.5% vs +1.2% priorShares of home builders have been beaten up this week on poor earnings and even-weaker forecasts for the months ahead. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com. Source link

Prelim was 53.3Prior was 51.0Conditions 50.4 vs 50.7 prelimExpectations 54.6 vs 55.0 prelim10year inflation 4.2% vs 4.1% prelim (prior was 4.5%)5-year inflation 3.2% vs 3.2% prelim (prior was 3.4%)In the preliminary report, the big surprise was the drop in inflation expectations. Now that tends to correlate with gasoline prices so I’d take it with a grain of salt but the Fed will see it as validation for cutting rates, particularly when combined with the softer CPI report this week. All that said, the market is seeing just a 20% chance of a January rate cut and just over 50% for…

It is Quadruple Witching Friday—that rare quarterly alignment where contracts on four different types of securities expire simultaneously:Index optionsSingle stock optionsIndex futuresIndex futures optionsAccording to data from Goldman Sachs, a staggering $7.1 trillion in notional options exposure is set to expire today. To give you an idea of the sheer scale here, that represents notional exposure equal to roughly 10.2% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 3000.Broken down, that includes about $5 trillion tied to the S&P 500 and another $880 billion linked to single stocks.So, why is today so heavy? December expirations are typically the biggest of…

SPDR S&P 500 ETF declares quarterly distribution of $1.9934 Source link

Sector OverviewThe US stock market today is witnessing notable trends in the technology and semiconductor sectors. Based on today’s heatmap, tech giants are on the rise, with Oracle (ORCL) leading the charge with a stunning increase of 5.47%. Meanwhile, the semiconductor industry is experiencing a substantial uptrend, prominently driven by Nvidia (NVDA) rising 1.73% and AMD climbing 2.29%.Conversely, the consumer cyclicals show a mixed scenario; while Tesla (TSLA) is up 0.89%, other key players like Amazon (AMZN) have dipped slightly by 0.25%. Additionally, consumer electronics giant Apple (AAPL) is down by 0.15%, suggesting mild investor caution or profit-taking in this…

USD/JPY is quickly lower on this.Desirable for FX to move in stable manner reflecting fundamentalsWill take appropriate actionClearly seeing one-sided, rapid movesThis is the strongest language yet and it comes after the yen sold off hard despite today’s Bank of Japan rate hike. The BOJ hiked short-term rates today to 0.75%, which is (amazingly) the highest in three decades.The move was not a surprise to markets and it initially strengthened but it appears as though sellers were waiting in the weeds and have been dumping since, boosting USD/JPY by more than 150 pips.Zooming out, USD/JPY is challenging the November highs…

One of the most common problems for traders is learning when and how to cut losers and hold on to winning forex trades. Let’s talk about the latter today. Have you ever asked yourself, “Should I take profit now or should I let it run?” in the middle of an open trade? Maybe there were times when taking profit early proved to be the better decision. But I’m sure there were also instances when you smacked yourself at the back of the head for closing your trade too early. Why do traders tend to cut profits early anyway? Here are…

For CFD brokers, the first 72 hours are decisive. Yet most of them witness the same pattern unfold: traders register, hesitate at KYC, explore briefly, and bounce off. By the time a follow-up email arrives, they’ve already started trading with a competitor. This is no longer a conversion issue, but rather an engagement matter. How do some brokers manage to keep traders engaged long-term?Amid rising lead acquisition costs for brokers and lower switching costs for traders, general emails and reactive call centre outreach no longer cut it. Traders want platforms that understand them, guide them, and adapt to their behaviour…

EUR/USD extends losses for the fourth consecutive day on Friday, trading at 1.1715 at the time of writing, and on track to close the week slightly lower after having rallied nearly 2% over the previous three weeks.The Euro (EUR) extended losses on Thursday after the European Central Bank (ECB) left interest rates unchanged, as widely expected, and ECB President Christine Lagarde refused to commit to any particular rate path. Lagarde affirmed that the decision was taken unanimously and there was no discussion to change interest rates, suggesting that market speculation about a rate hike is unfounded.In the US, November’s Consumer…