Author: FX
UOB’s Ho Woei Chen expects China’s National People’s Congress to set a 2026 real GDP growth target of 4.5–5.0%, with actual growth forecast at 4.7%. The report highlights a likely 2% CPI target, a fiscal deficit near 4% of GDP, more special local government and ultra-long-term treasury bonds, and modest monetary easing via a 10-bps rate cut and 50-bps RRR reduction.NPC to balance growth and stability”We expect the NPC to set a more moderate real GDP target of 4.5–5.0% for 2026, reflecting lower provincial goals, vs. ~5% targets in the past three years. Of the 31 regions, 21 lowered their…
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The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q1 dipped to 3.0% from 3.1% last. In their own wordsThe GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2026 is 3.0 percent on February 27, down from 3.1 percent on February 24. After this morning’s releases from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the nowcasts of first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth and real government expenditures growth decreased from 8.5 percent and 1.6 percent, respectively, to 7.9 percent and 1.5 percent.The next GDPNow update is Monday, March 2.…
The NASDAQ index pushed to a high on Monday but failed to extend above its falling 100-hour moving average, a rejection that triggered a sharp move lower. The decline reached Tuesday’s weekly low near 22,193, aligning with the top of a key swing support area.A subsequent rebound carried the index back above the 100-hour moving average, briefly increasing the bullish bias. However, momentum stalled at the 200-hour moving average, where buyers turned into sellers, leading to another sharp decline yesterday. Today, downside pressure continues, with the index trading lower by roughly 0.8%.What comes next?For buyers to regain control, the price…
Prior was +2.6%GDP -0.2% q/q vs +0.6% priorReal GDP increased 1.7% in 2025The number might not be as bad as it looks as the fourth quarter decrease was largely due to withdrawals of business inventories following inventory accumulations in the third quarter. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com. Source link
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes USD/CAD is directionless around 1.3675 ahead of Canada’s Q4 GDP release, with consensus expecting a modest contraction versus the Bank of Canada’s stall forecast. Haddad argues easing core inflation allows the BOC to keep rates steady, and he expects USD/CAD to hold above 1.3600 near term with resistance at 1.3800.BOC steady stance underpins range trade”USD/CAD is directionless around 1.3675.””The Bank of Canada (BOC) estimates real GDP growth to stall after rising 2.6% SAAR in Q3 because of inventory destocking. Consensus is more downbeat with a -0.2% SAAR decline in Q4 penciled in. “”The…
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWGold got stuck in another consolidation as the bullish momentum remains weak amid conflicting signals. Yesterday, it looked like the third round of US-Iran talks went bad as we got reports of Iran rejecting US demands. The markets went into risk-off, eventually supporting gold prices. Later on, we got reports that the talks made significant progress and another round was scheduled for next week. This push and pull is keeping most market rangebound, including gold. Overall, the market might remain supported in the short-term amid some uncertainty, but I don’t see material changes to justify a rally back to…
Danske Bank’s Danske Research Team notes that EUR/USD is trading close to 1.18 as markets await key Euro area inflation data. The bank expects Euro area HICP inflation to edge up slightly to 1.73% year-on-year, with core inflation steady at 2.2%. Softer preliminary inflation prints from France, Spain and Germany could add downward pressure on Euro rates.Euro inflation expectations support stability”In the euro area, February’s flash inflation data from France, Germany, and Spain will give important hints ahead of next week’s euro area inflation release. We expect euro area HICP inflation to rise marginally from 1.69% y/y to 1.73% y/y,…
The MT5 Alert Indicator isn’t a single plug-and-play tool it’s a customizable notification framework built into MetaTrader 5. Traders can set alerts based on price levels, indicator values, or specific market conditions. Think of it as programming your trading platform to tap you on the shoulder when opportunities match your strategy. What sets this apart from generic price alerts? The indicator component allows for complex conditions. A trader might set an alert for when RSI crosses below 30 while price touches a support zone. That’s two conditions working together, not just “notify me when EUR/USD hits 1.0800.” The technical backbone…
EUR/USD is chillin’ like a villain near a key inflection point that could help extend the pair’s 2026 gains. Will this area of interest hold and attract fresh buying pressure? Here’s what we’re seeing on the daily time frame: EUR/USD Daily – Chart Faster with TradingView Easing concerns around U.S. tariff policies and fading jitters over the European Central Bank’s leadership helped steady the euro, even as the region continued to deliver mixed mid-tier data. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar is struggling to build momentum as traders stay cautious around the U.S.-Iran conflict and ongoing legal challenges to Trump’s tariff regime.…