Author: FX
ING’s Frantisek Taborsky notes the Hungarian Forint is testing new highs as EUR/HUF trades near two-year lows ahead of expected NBH rate cuts. With two 25bp cuts already priced for February and March, he sees any Forint weakness as a buying opportunity, though acknowledges that rate cuts are negative for carry and may eventually slow further EUR/HUF downside.EUR/HUF strength into NBH easing”The forint tests new highs ahead of the NBH cutting cycle restart, supported by global risk-on sentiment for EM currencies but also market pre-election positioning. EUR/HUF near two-year lows clearly gives NBH the green light to cut rates. At…
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept its Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 2.25% today, signaling that monetary policy will remain accommodative for the time being as the economy recovers from a prolonged downturn. The decision was unanimous and widely expected by market participants. Key points from the RBNZ statement: Annual CPI inflation rose to 3.1% in Q4 2025, slightly above the 1-3% target band The Committee is confident inflation will fall to the 2% midpoint over the next 12 months Significant spare capacity remains in the economy, with unemployment at 5.4% Economic recovery is broadening across manufacturing,…
The GDPNow reading has slowly been sliding after getting much fanfare from politicians when it was above 5% on shutdown-affected data. The latest reading trims another 0.1 pp from the reading as we near the first official reading (which of course is revised several times itself). Tomorrow we get another update on the GDPNow forecast with critical readings in trade balance and wholesale inventories possibly leading to big swings.Today’s small change comes after data on industrial production, housing starts and durable goods orders. Source link
The Minutes of the United States (US) Federal Reserve’s (Fed) January 27-28 monetary policy meeting will be published on Wednesday at 19:00 GMT. The US central bank decided to leave the policy rate unchanged at the range of 3.50%-3.75%, but Fed Governors Stephen Miran and Christopher Waller voted to lower the fed funds rate by 25 bps.Jerome Powell and company opted to pause rate cuts in JanuaryThe Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held the interest rate unchanged in January after opting for three consecutive 25 basis points (bps) rate cuts. In the policy statement, the Fed noted that the unemployment…
The sources cited note that there is currently no evidence of a diplomatic breakthrough between the US and Iran on the horizon. At this stage, the report says that Trump’s military and rhetorical build-ups is going to prove tough to back down from, especially if without any major concessions from Iran regarding its nuclear program.This means that a call for military conflict might not just be a bluff, with “all signs point to him pulling the trigger if talks fail”.The report adds that any military operation in Iran will be massive, involving a weeks-long campaign that would resemble a full-fledged…
MUFG’s Head of Research Derek Halpenny remains constructive on EM FX for 2026, citing supportive global growth, restrained US tariff risk, and ongoing fiscal and monetary stimulus in major economies. He highlights strong performance in BRL and MXN, low and falling inflation across key EMs, and forecasts notable gains in ZAR, CLP, MYR and KRW, aided by a recovery in Japanese Yen and CNY.Supportive macro backdrop and low inflation”If it does result in a warming of relations it would be another factor that can help support global sentiment and would reinforce the prospect of EM FX continuing to perform well.””We…
European markets rise over improved market sentiment Source link
French inflation slows to 0.4% in January Source link
The Follow Line indicator offers a straightforward solution. This MT4 tool tracks price momentum and plots a dynamic line that changes color when trend direction shifts. Instead of juggling multiple indicators or second-guessing every candle, traders get a clear visual signal for entries and exits. Let’s explore how this indicator works and whether it deserves a spot on your charts. What Is the Follow Line Indicator? The Follow Line is a trend-following indicator that appears as a single line beneath or above price action, similar to a moving average but with more responsive behavior. When the market trends upward, the…
EUR/NZD is testing the top of its consolidation pattern! Will we see a breakout in the next few trading sessions, or will euro bears and Kiwi bulls step in again to keep the pair contained inside the triangle? Here’s what we’re seeing on the 4-hour time frame: EUR/NZD 4-hour Forex Chart Faster with TradingView The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) flagging that “monetary policy is likely to remain accommodative for some time” got traders selling Kiwi like it’s going out of style. The euro isn’t exactly shining either, with uneven business PMI expectations later this week likely capping demand.…