Author: FX

Societe Generale’s Kunal Kundu reviews India’s FY27 Union Budget, highlighting policy continuity and fiscal consolidation in a context of geopolitical strains and currency weakness. The note flags modest allocations to employment schemes, questions execution of six focus areas, and warns that without stronger revenues, capital expenditure may again be cut to meet the 4.3% of GDP deficit target.Fiscal consolidation but capex at risk”Amid geopolitical strains, trade uncertainty, currency weakness, and investor scepticism over growth metrics, India’s FY27 Union Budget presented on 1 February 2026, emphasised policy continuity and fiscal consolidation.””Among the various announcements, focus on data centres and GCCs (Global…

The Pound Sterling (GBP) drops some 0.10% on Friday as the Greenback is underpinned by a hot inflation report in the US, which prompted investors to price in a less dovish Federal Reserve (Fed). Also heightened risks in the Middle East weighed on the GBP/USD pair, which trades at 1.3469 at the time of writing.Sterling eases as firm US inflation data tempers Fed cut bets and risk sentiment deterioratesRisk appetite has taken a toll as the AI hype seems to have faded, as depicted by the S&P 500, which is headed towards its worst month since March 2025. In the…

I don’t think anyone will be shedding a tear for the declines in private equity stocks but Blue Owl (which is notorious for software loans): -6%Jefferies -10.3%Apollo -8.4%KKR -7.3%Ares -7.1%Goldman Sachs -7%Morgan Stanley 6.6%The fundamental pitch of private equity is leveraged lending and buyouts. There were buyouts of software companies and clients of these firms are holding unlisted shares in these companies.What are those companies worth now? Many of them aren’t even making any money but had large multiples of revenues but suddenly those multiples are collapsing. Even if companies are good, they’re getting tossed out because software is toxic.Now…

The Australian Dollar (AUD) trades flat against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday as the Greenback reverses earlier gains despite stronger-than-expected US Producer Price Index (PPI) data. At the time of writing, AUD/USD is trading around 0.7112 and is on track for an eighth consecutive week of gains.The headline PPI rose 0.5% MoM, beating the 0.3% forecast, while December’s figure was revised down to 0.4% from 0.5%. On a yearly basis, PPI increased 2.9%, above expectations of 2.6%, though slightly below the previous 3% reading.Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, climbed 0.8% MoM, well above the 0.3% estimate and…

UOB’s Ho Woei Chen expects China’s National People’s Congress to set a 2026 real GDP growth target of 4.5–5.0%, with actual growth forecast at 4.7%. The report highlights a likely 2% CPI target, a fiscal deficit near 4% of GDP, more special local government and ultra-long-term treasury bonds, and modest monetary easing via a 10-bps rate cut and 50-bps RRR reduction.NPC to balance growth and stability”We expect the NPC to set a more moderate real GDP target of 4.5–5.0% for 2026, reflecting lower provincial goals, vs. ~5% targets in the past three years. Of the 31 regions, 21 lowered their…

High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all your initial investment; do not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. Educate yourself on the risks associated with foreign exchange trading and seek advice from an independent financial or tax advisor if you have any questions. Advisory warning: investingLive is not an investment advisor, investingLive provides references and…

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q1 dipped to 3.0% from 3.1% last. In their own wordsThe GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2026 is 3.0 percent on February 27, down from 3.1 percent on February 24. After this morning’s releases from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the nowcasts of first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth and real government expenditures growth decreased from 8.5 percent and 1.6 percent, respectively, to 7.9 percent and 1.5 percent.The next GDPNow update is Monday, March 2.…

The NASDAQ index pushed to a high on Monday but failed to extend above its falling 100-hour moving average, a rejection that triggered a sharp move lower. The decline reached Tuesday’s weekly low near 22,193, aligning with the top of a key swing support area.A subsequent rebound carried the index back above the 100-hour moving average, briefly increasing the bullish bias. However, momentum stalled at the 200-hour moving average, where buyers turned into sellers, leading to another sharp decline yesterday. Today, downside pressure continues, with the index trading lower by roughly 0.8%.What comes next?For buyers to regain control, the price…

Prior was +2.6%GDP -0.2% q/q vs +0.6% priorReal GDP increased 1.7% in 2025The number might not be as bad as it looks as the fourth quarter decrease was largely due to withdrawals of business inventories following inventory accumulations in the third quarter. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com. Source link

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes USD/CAD is directionless around 1.3675 ahead of Canada’s Q4 GDP release, with consensus expecting a modest contraction versus the Bank of Canada’s stall forecast. Haddad argues easing core inflation allows the BOC to keep rates steady, and he expects USD/CAD to hold above 1.3600 near term with resistance at 1.3800.BOC steady stance underpins range trade”USD/CAD is directionless around 1.3675.””The Bank of Canada (BOC) estimates real GDP growth to stall after rising 2.6% SAAR in Q3 because of inventory destocking. Consensus is more downbeat with a -0.2% SAAR decline in Q4 penciled in. “”The…