Author: FX
Markets:You can’t shake the feeling that there will be at least one more twist in this saga but all signs were positive on Friday as Iran announced the Strait was reopening and Trump said a deal is coming in a day or two. That led to a $10 drop in oil prices and the corresponding price action with bond yields down 6-8 bps late and the Nasdaq up for a 13th straight session. The US dollar sold off and the euro rose as high as 1.1847.Notably though, the US dollar decline didn’t last and completely reversed later. The moves in…
Silver (XAG/USD) price surges over 4% on Friday, reclaiming $81.00 a troy ounce as the Greenback gets battered on positive news around the Middle East conflict. The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a second round of talks between the US and Iran pushed precious metals higher, and the white metal is no exception. At the time of writing, the XAG/USD pair trades at $81.82.XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical OutlookThe white metal advanced steadily on Friday, rallying for the fourth straight week and reaching a five-week high at $83.06 before retreating to $81.00. Price action seems constructive, and if Silver…
DBS Group Research economists highlight that China’s Q1 2026 GDP growth accelerated to 5.0% year-on-year, driven by strong external demand and resilient industrial production, while domestic demand in consumption, investment and credit stayed weak. Improving PPI and CPI readings reduce urgency for aggressive monetary easing, leading DBS to scale back its 2026 1Y LPR cut forecast to 10 basis points.External resilience, softer domestic momentum”China’s economic growth accelerated from 4.5%yoy in Q4 2025 to 5.0% in Q1 2026, started of with a solid footing. Industrial activity remained well supported by strong external demand, while domestic momentum stayed uneven, with consumption, investment,…
Gold (XAU/USD) price rallies on Friday ahead of the weekend, breaking past the $4,850 level and rising more than 1.50%, as the US-Iran conflict seems to be de-escalating after Iran reopened the Strait of Hormuz, easing inflationary pressures worldwide. Energy prices tumble, with WTI, the US crude oil benchmark, down more than 9%, while the US Dollar falls to a seven-week low.Bullion rallies as falling Oil revives Fed cut hopes for 2026Middle East news remains the focus for market participants, who tend to react strongly to headlines suggesting the conflict may end. The source was different: the Iranian Foreign Minister…
MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Lloyd Chan notes that improved diplomatic signals in the Middle East have boosted risk sentiment, softening the US Dollar (USD) and supporting Asian FX. However, high US front-end yields still underpin the Dollar, and bond markets remain cautious. Chan highlights that Asian currencies have rebounded on expectations of a quicker resolution, but warns recent gains could prove vulnerable if diplomacy stalls.De-escalation narrative lifts Asia FX”FX-wise, the USD has also softened on improved risk appetite, but still-high US front end rates are keeping a supportive carry backdrop for the dollar, with the US 2-year yield remaining above…
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is losing momentum near 98.00 as safe-haven demand fades on the reopening news, but downside remains limited amid lingering geopolitical risks. Markets are experiencing fluctuations between relief and renewed caution as developments around the Strait of Hormuz continue to evolve. Earlier reports confirmed that this vital Oil chokepoint is “fully open and ready for full passage,” alleviating fears about prolonged supply disruptions. However, new developments are complicating the situation. Reports suggest that Iran may consider closing the Strait of Hormuz again if the United States maintains its naval blockade, warning that such an action would…
Trump is out with an interview with CBS reiterating that the US will get Iran’s uranium.”Our people, together with the Iranians are going to work together to go get it. And then we’ll take it to the United States,” he said.However, Iran’s Parliamentary National Security Committee Spokesman tells Al Jazeera they will not allow the removal of uranium from Iran, and the American statements on social media differ from reality.”The option of transferring Iran’s enriched uranium abroad is rejected,” the report quoted the official saying.Maybe this ultimately still ends with the uranium going to a third country but everything is…
About 20 minutes before Iran’s foreign minister told the world today that the Strait of Hormuz was fully open again, someone dumped 7,990 lots of Brent crude futures between 1224 and 1225 GMT. That’s roughly $760 million worth of short exposure, placed with impeccable timing right ahead of an announcement that cratered crude by as much as 11% on the day.Pretty good trade. Suspiciously good. And not the first time during this conflict.On April 7, another ~$950 million short hit the tape just hours before the US and Iran announced their two-week ceasefire. Go back to March 23 and you’ll…
The S&P 500 is at the highs of the day, up 1.45%, or 102 points to 7143. That’s a record high as well and more than a 10% gain from the March 30 low.It’s been an incredible rally and the latest leg higher came after Trump told AFP that there are no sticking points in the Iran deal.Back in March I highlighted six things I expected to be the TACO trades if peace was reached:1) Short oil2) Oil offshoots – airlines, transports, some consumer-sensitive stocks. I highlighted cruise ships in particular.3) Disinflation and rate cuts4) Global stocks5) Short USD6) Gold,…
Nordea’s Henrik Unell maintains a constructive stance on the Swedish Krona, arguing that carry should be secondary to growth prospects and equity flows. After a war-driven spike in EUR/SEK and USD/SEK, improved sentiment, a steady Riksbank, and ongoing rotation from US to Swedish assets by households underpin expectations that SEK fundamentals will recover.Sentiment, Riksbank stance aid SEK”So far we haven´t changed the main story or the forecast for the SEK as the war has hopefully plateaued.””Now that investor sentiment has recovered, we expect that macro fundamentals will do the same.””The Riksbank will stay on hold for the rest of the…