Author: FX
Bessent says US has 'makings of a deal' with China Source link
What a week to be alive in FX land! July’s final act delivered more plot twists than a Netflix thriller. The big driver was likely Trump’s tariff blitz, hitting everyone from Switzerland (ouch, 39%!) to India. We also watched the Fed play hard-to-get with rate cuts despite two governors practically begging for easing, and ended with a jobs report so weak it sent traders scrambling to reprice September Fed odds. Between geopolitical & trade uncertainty, and the dollar’s dramatic end-of-week reversal, this was the kind of week that separates the FX veterans from the rookies. This Article Is For…
The July nonfarm payrolls report showed just 73K jobs added, sharply missing the 110K estimate, with major downward revisions to prior months:.May was revised down from 144,000 to 19,000—> -125,000June was revised down from 147,000 to 14,000 —> -133,000The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2% from 4.1% last month. The sharp revisions led to the dismissal of the BLS Commisioner (‘You’re fired!”) with Trump saying:The reality is the 818,000-job downward revision was announced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on August 21, 2024 – not on November 15 right after the election. It reflected a preliminary benchmark adjustment showing that…
USD/JPY drops from 150.91 to 147.28 on soft Nonfarm Payrolls.Pair falls below 200-day and 20-day SMAs, RSI turns bearish.Next key support sits at 145.71, where 50- and 100-day SMAs converge.The USD/JPY is set to end the week with losses of 0.18% after a worse-than-expected employment report in the United States (US) opened the gates for safe-haven demand, pushing the Japanese Yen higher. This, along with falling US Treasury yields, sent the pair plummeting more than 2%, from around 150.91 to 147.28. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 147.38, near the weekly lows.USD/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlookThe USD/JPY…
EUR/USD rallies from 1.1391 to 1.1554, gaining over 1% on Friday.July Nonfarm Payrolls show just 73K jobs added; May–June revisions slash 258K jobs.Fed funds futures price in 62 bps of easing by December; 76% odds of a September rate cut.EU inflation data beats forecasts: HICP at 2.4% YoY, core HICP steady at 2.0%.The EUR/USD surges more than 1% on Friday as the Greenback gets battered on a worse-than-expected jobs report in the United States (US), which triggered investors’ reaction to price in two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed). Data across the pond was shrugged off by traders,…
The major US indices are closing sharply lower with the NASDAQ index and the small-cap Russell index down over 2% each.The cause: August 1 tariffs went into effectJobs data came in much lower, with revisions the big contributor to the weaknessNews that the US was positioning nuclear subs in “appropriate regions” as a result of the inflammatory comments from former Russian Pres. MedvedevThe firing of the BLS chief in charge of the employment data for manipulating the data to make Trump look bad.If you had those four things on your bingo card, you win the prize.The final numbers are showing:…
Now that Pres. Trump has fired the person in charge of the BLS employment report, Axios wrote an article that outlines the general BLS process to the jobs release. Here is the down and dirty without getting too much into the weeds:Release timing: The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), a nonpartisan agency under the Labor Department, releases the monthly jobs report at 8:30 a.m. ET on the first Friday of each month. Initial snapshot: The report includes the monthly change in employment based on surveys from ~629,000 worksites. It’s a quick but lower-resolution estimate, but it is not without its…
The Canadian Dollar caught a much-needed boost against the US Dollar on Friday.Bearish Loonie flows reversed direction after the US Dollar took a hit post-NFP.Souring US jobs data has knocked the Greenback sharply lower.The Canadian Dollar (CAD) came out on top after a messy US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release shattered global positioning in the US Dollar (USD) on Friday. The Greenback fell across the board after US net job additions fell well short of expectations, with previous months facing sharp downside revisions. The Loonie has pared some losses against the USD, but still remains down sharply for the week.Canadian Dollar…
Fed Gov.Adriana Kugler is resigning her position effective August 8, to accept a position at Georgetown. That opens an appointment from Pres. Trump. Fed governors also have a permanent vote on the Fed. With the president already licking his chops to appoint a new Fed chair, this gives him a total of two appointees. Recall he appointed both Bowman and Waller in his first term. Both of them dissented to ease rates at the last meeting. The Fed is not supposed to be political, but surprise, surprise, it is shifting that way.Kugler was not at the meeting this week for…
The Dow Jones tumbled over 1.85% on Friday peak-to-trough.US NFP jobs figures came in well below expectations alongside steep revisions.A shuddering labor market has reignited hopes for more Fed rate cuts soon.The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) plummeted almost 2% top-to-bottom on Friday, falling over 800 points from Thursday’s closing bids at its lowest point. Equity markets are scrambling to recover their footing after a disappointing Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report that showed the US added far fewer jobs in July than expected.The Dow Jones fell to a five-week low, tapping 43,330 for the first time since late June and running…