Author: FX

The Reserve Bank of India have stepped into the FX market with intervention so support the rupee. Yesterday I reported on four consecutive days of INR weakness, the RBI acting to avoid a fifth today. The rupee’s recent slide has been driven mainly by early-year importer hedging demand, compounded by a lack of strong foreign equity inflows. Market participants say these persistent structural flows have outweighed sporadic central-bank support, leaving the currency exposed to further downside pressure.Sentiment has also been dented by a deterioration in the US–India trade backdrop. Over the weekend, Donald Trump warned that Washington could consider higher…

The Japanese Yen (JPY) remains on the back foot against its American counterpart through the Asian session on Wednesday, though any meaningful depreciating move seems elusive. Against the backdrop of Japan’s fiscal concerns, the prevalent risk-on environment, and the uncertainty about the likely timing of the next interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) turn out to be key factors undermining the JPY.The BoJ, however, is still expected to stick to its policy normalization path, which marks a significant divergence in comparison to rising bets for more interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). The latter…

The Pi Cycle Top Indicator is a technical analysis tool that traders use to identify possible market tops, particularly in cryptocurrency markets like Bitcoin. It got its name from the mathematical constant Pi (3.14), which plays a role in how the indicator calculates its signals. The indicator works on the MetaTrader 5 (MT5) platform, making it accessible for traders who already use this popular trading software. Unlike some complicated indicators that require a PhD to understand, this one keeps things pretty straightforward with just two moving averages doing the heavy lifting. How the Indicator Works The magic happens when two…

ETH/USD has pushed higher in recent sessions, and momentum has now reached extreme overbought territory on the Stochastic oscillator. This type of development can sometimes precede a cooling-off phase, especially after a persistent climb from recent lows. Traders watching for shifts in short-term sentiment may find this a notable juncture to reassess risk and potential scenarios. Welcome to “TA Alert of the Day.” Each day after the market close, MarketMilk scans for popular technical indicator alerts. We use these alerts as the basis for a mini-lesson, breaking down what each alert means, why it matters, and how traders might interpret…

Summary:Morgan Stanley forecasts gold at $4,800/oz by Q4 2026Falling rates and Fed leadership change seen as key driversCentral-bank and fund buying expected to remain strongGeopolitical risk adds to gold’s safe-haven appealSilver outlook supported by supply deficits and China export controlsGold could extend its historic rally well into 2026, with Morgan Stanley forecasting prices to reach $4,800 per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026, according to a research note dated January 5. The bank expects a powerful combination of monetary, institutional and geopolitical forces to underpin further gains following bullion’s exceptional performance last year.The forecast builds on expectations of a…

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) will publish the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for November at 00:30 GMT on Wednesday.This is the second complete monthly CPI report, as the government continues to transition from the quarterly CPI to the monthly gauge as the primary measure of headline inflation.“However, the RBA has said it still prefers the quarterly prints for a better gauge of inflation trends, given the new data can be volatile,” according to Reuters.The inflation report is eagerly awaited to gauge the next interest rate move by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which could significantly impact the…

Unless you’re still very much in holiday mode, you probably saw the news of the U.S. military capturing Venezuela’s President in a dramatic high-stakes raid over the weekend. President Trump even announced that the U.S. will run the country, prompting massive international uproar and an emergency meeting by the UN Security Council. Now Venezuela has the world’s largest proven oil reserves, even more than Saudi Arabia, so this should be a big deal for oil prices, right? Except oil barely budged. WTI crude still sits around $57 per barrel while Brent hovers near $61, basically flat since the Venezuela crisis…

Silver was the commodity darling of 2025 and the squeeze higher is continuing this year. Prices are up 5% today and above $80 for only the second time ever.The first rise above $80 came on Boxing Day in low liquidity and quickly faded. This foray higher is coming in New York/European hours with desks fully staffed. That’s a strong indication of underlying interest and continued backing from retail flows.silver hourly chartNotably, precious metals have a strong seasonal pattern in Dec/Jan, something I’ve been writing about for 15 years. With silver up 5% today, gold is also up 0.5% or $23…

Gold (XAU/USD) trades slightly firmer on Tuesday after posting gains of more than 2.5% the previous day, driven by a surge in safe-haven demand following the United States (US) attacks on Venezuela. At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading around $4,470, up nearly 0.50% on the day.While safe-haven demand remains elevated, fresh buying has eased after Monday’s sharp advance as investors continue to monitor developments in the US-Venezuela relationship. Over the weekend, US armed forces captured and brought Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro to New York, where Maduro is facing narco-terrorism and drug-trafficking charges.Meanwhile, relatively stable risk sentiment across global…

Prior 51.3Final Composite PMI 51.4 vs 52.1 prelimPrior 51.2Key findings:Business activity expansion remains marginal Renewed upturn in new orders Input cost inflation accelerates to seven-month highComment:Tim Moore, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: “Lacklustre business activity growth continued across the UK service sector at the end of 2025. Moreover, the speed of expansion was softer than signalled by the earlier ‘flash’ survey in December and lower than seen on average in the second half of the year. “The most positive development was a renewed upturn in new business intakes, following a slight decline during November. Modest growth of…