Author: FX
Trump says he is optimistic about a Gaza deal Source link
If you’ve been keeping an eye on the news, you already know the U.S. government has been shut down since the start of October. You might be wondering: “What the heck is a shutdown?! And more importantly, how do I trade this mess?” Let’s break it down to help you understand how it might shake up the economic landscape and the FX space. So, What’s a Government Shutdown? Congress needs to pass spending bills by September 30 each year to fund the government for the next fiscal year. When Congress can’t agree on a budget – or pass a “stopgap”…
Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari struck a more reserved tone than some of his Fed counterparts on Tuesday, cautioning that it’s still too soon to be able to tell if tariff-led inflation will be “sticky” or not. However, Kashkari noted that he’s particularly bullish on the labor market, and is expecting a return to form for American job creation which has sputtered recently.Key highlightsToo soon to know if inflation will be sticky from tariffs.Skeptical that a lot of workers are being replaced by AI now.Bullish on labor, workers have a very important role in the economy.Hearing…
Federal Reserve (Fed) Board of Governors member Stephen Miran made another long-winded appearance on Tuesday, reiterating that he believes any underlying inflation pressures within the US economy are entirely contained within migrant population effects, and will be solved mainly by immigration controls. Miran also gave his own personal estimate of the neutral rate of interest, or r-star as it is known to economists, of 0.5%. Miran’s unexplained personal model for r-star comes in well below even the most aggressive common r-star models, which all currently land somewhere in the 1% to 0.8% range at the absolute lowest.Key highlightsGrowth in the…
NZD/USD retreats on Tuesday, extending consolidation below 0.5840 to trade near 0.5810 at the time of writing. Market participants turn their attention to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) monetary policy decision due on Wednesday.The New Zealand central bank is widely expected to cut its Official Cash Rate (OCR), currently at 3%, to support a weakening economy. However, markets remain divided between a 25-basis-point reduction to 2.75% and a more aggressive 50-basis-point move to 2.50%. The move would be the eighth rate cut since August 2024.According to Brown Brothers Harriman, “the 0.9% GDP contraction in the second quarter leaves…
The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q3 remained at 3.8%. From the Atlanta Fed, due to the government shutdown, the GDPNow update scheduled for Thursday, October 9, will be deferred until a new monthly data release is available for the modelIn their own words:The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2025 is 3.8 percent on October 7, unchanged from October 1 after rounding. Due to the government shutdown, today’s GDPNow update is based only on the Nonmanufacturing ISM Report on Business released on October 3 by the Institute for…
The Euro (EUR) remains under pressure on Tuesday, slipping toward a one-month low against the US Dollar (USD) as deepening political turmoil in France fuels risk-off sentiment in European markets. At the time of writing, EUR/USD is trading around 1.1672, stabilizing somewhat after earlier losses.French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu resigned on Monday, only weeks after taking office, deepening the country’s political crisis and adding pressure on President Emmanuel Macron. Macron has asked the outgoing prime minister to stay in office until Wednesday evening to hold “final negotiations” with political parties in an effort to define a platform for action and…
bymuratdenizCarlyle Group (NASDAQ:CG), the alternative asset manager, released its proprietary U.S. economic data on Tuesday, portraying a solid U.S. economy, in the absence of U.S. government data due to the federal shutdown. The firm estimates that U.S. employers added 17K jobs Source link
Bullish above: 124,000 / Important: bitcoin futures price! Bearish below: 127,000 Primary Bias: Range-bound / tactical fade setups Partial Targets: 126,540 – 126,255 – 125,725 – 124,430 – 124,020Bitcoin Market Context & Directional BiasBitcoin futures are currently trading around 125,395, roughly a quarter percent lower than yesterday’s close. The 50-week range high sits at 127,240, while today’s high is at 126,295. Price remains inside a broad consolidation zone, and the tradeCompass strategy favors fading extremes rather than chasing breakouts.If price rises above 127,220 and then slips below 127,000, the bearish setup activates. Conversely, a cross back above 124,000 after dipping…
The Indian Rupee (INR) wobbles around 88.90 against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday. The USD/INR pair extends its sideways trend for the 10th straight trading day near its all-time high of 89.10, as investors remain cautious amid ongoing trade tensions between the United States (US) and India.The US economy has been charging 50% tariffs on imports from India, close to the highest among its trading partners, as New Delhi continues to purchase Oil from Russia. Washington has criticized New Delhi for buying Russian Oil, citing that funds from India are ultimately supporting Moscow to continue the war with Ukraine.US-India…