Author: FX

It will soon be time to recalibrate policy to better match our economy.Both mandates are in tensions now.Tariffs are pushing inflation higher and the labour market is slowing.I think tariff-relates price increases will be a one-off.It will take time before we know that for certain but we can’t wait for perfect certainty without risking harm to the labour market.It’s funny how they avoid using the word “transitory”. Anyway, Fed’s Daly is just repeating that she expects the tariff-driven inflation to be short-lived and therefore favours lowering interest rates to help the labour market which in her view is slowing. It…

The US dollar will likely finish the day at the lows today. It’s been a rollercoaster week with the greenback erasing most of the losses triggered by Powell’s dovish tilt just to give the gains back heading into the weekend.Today there was no meaningful catalyst for the downside as the PCE data came out in line with expectations. We could argue that the selloff in the stock market might have had a part in dollar’s weakness but it could also be just month-end flows as the momentum picked up going into the London Fix. Nevertheless, the focus has now turned…

Marvell Technology dumps over 16% after Q2 earnings.Marvell missed Q2 revenue projections, but Wall Street is more concerned with Q3 outlook.Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Expectations miss forecasts.As Wall Street cuts price targets, MRVL could sink back to $48.Marvell Technology (MRVL) had a solid quarter. But you wouldn’t know that from the over 16% drop in its share price on Friday.The 30-year-old semiconductor company, valued for its AI system-on-a-chip (SoC) integrated circuits used in artificial intelligence (AI) applications, reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.67, in-line with Wall Street consensus, and revenue of $2.01 billion that rose more than 57%…

AUD/USD gained ground for a fourth straight session on Friday.The Aussie is gaining ground on a slumping US Dollar as Fed rate cut hopes remain.Markets largely shrugged off another uptick in US PCE inflation.AUD/USD caught a late-week lift on Friday, rising into the 0.6550 region after the latest US inflation data pushed the US Dollar (USD) lower across the board. The Australian Dollar (AUD) stepped into its fourth straight winning session against the Greenback, putting AUD/USD on a collision course with the top end of a technical range that has kept the pair constrained through most of the year.US inflation…

Silver advances to its strongest level since September 2011.Markets are pricing about an 87% chance of a Fed rate cut in September, despite firmer core PCE inflation.Technical outlook points to a potential break above $40.00, with resistance at $41.48 and $43.40, while support holds at $39.00 and the 100-period EMA.Silver (XAG/USD) extends its rally for the fourth consecutive day on Friday, with spot prices climbing to fresh 14-year highs. The metal trades around $39.85 at the time of writing, surpassing the July 23 peak of $39.53, as sustained weakness in the US Dollar (USD) and firm safe-haven demand keep buyers…

Prior 411Total rig count 536 vs 538 priorGas rigs 119 vs 122 priorThis is not a market moving indicator as it’s very lagging. Oil rigs count is of course correlated to oil prices. When oil prices trend upwards, oil rigs count increases, and when oil prices trend downwards, oil rigs count decreases. In the picture below, you can see that oil prices LEAD oil rigs count. oil vs rigs count Source link

1 month annualised +1.9% vs +3.4% prior6 months annualised +2.6% vs +2.8% prior12 month annualised +2.7% vs +2.7 priorThe 1 month annualised rate is very volatile, so don’t mistake that for inflation coming down. The 6 month and 12 month annualised rates are a better gauge of the trend. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com. Source link

The Judge asked more time to preserve the status quo while she considers the merits of the legal fight. The Fed today said in a court filing that it takes no position in the lawsuit but that it wants a “prompt ruling” to remove “the existing cloud of uncertainty”. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com. Source link

Gold reverses losses on Friday, climbing to a 2-month high near $3,450.Despite a firmer US Dollar, bullion found renewed demand as traders maintained bets on Fed easing.US Core PCE rose 0.3% MoM and 2.9% YoY in July, while headline PCE gained 0.2% MoM and held steady at 2.6% YoY.Gold (XAU/USD) reverses course on Friday, erasing intraday losses and climbing back to fresh highs. The precious metal is now trading near $3,447, its strongest level since June 16, after the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation report came broadly in line with expectations. A softer tone in the US Dollar (USD)…

The upside in gold has been supported since Powell’s dovish tilt last Friday. Inflation expectations kept on climbing, while Treasury yields fell into new lows. That caused real yields to fall, giving further boost to gold prices. Today we are seeing a stronger push to the upside although we haven’t got any meaningful catalyst. This looks more like one of those last parabolic pushes before a bigger pullback, but time will tell. The focus is now on the US labour market data that will culminate with the NFP report next Friday. Strong data might take the probability for a September…