Author: FX

Markets:Gold up $87 to $5085WTI crude oil flat at $66.39US 10-year yields up 0.8 bps to 4.08%S&P 500 up 0.5%AUD leads, CAD lagsIt was a news-filled day that started with a big miss on GDP. You could sniff that downside surprise out (and we did) after yesterday’s trade data miss and this morning’s comments from Trump lamenting the drag from the government shutdown. The dollar was choppy afterwards, in part because the lower GDP came with higher PCE inflation numbers, leaving the Fed in a tough predicament that argues for more time on the sidelines.As a result, the July Fed…

UOB Global Economics & Markets Research highlights that Thailand’s economy remains a low‑growth, low‑inflation outlier, even as authorities project modest improvement in 2026 and 2027. Despite some upside risks to near‑term growth, UOB expects 2026 to mark the cyclical trough and continues to forecast a final 25 bps policy rate cut at the upcoming BOT meeting.Low growth and inflation justify further easing”Looking ahead, the authorities project 2026 growth at 1.5–2.5% (midpoint 2.0%) with headline inflation at -0.3 to 0.7%.””While noting the upside risks to the near-term growth outlook, we maintain our medium-term view that 2026 marks the cyclical trough (1.8%),…

I would have expected the Supreme Court decision to be a negative for gold, as it opens the pathway to a reversal of tariffs and a re-affirmation of the dollar-based system.Instead, the market seems to be taking it as a sign of further turmoil and uncertainty, which is gold bullish. The ongoing worries about a war in Iran are certainly underpinning that belief. Yesterday, Trump said Iran had 10 or “maybe 15” days to make a deal and he later confirmed that there could be a per-emptory strike to force Iran’s hand.On the seasonal side, the Lunar New Year holidays…

DBS Group Research economist Chua Han Teng forecasts Singapore core and headline inflation rising to 1.5% year-on-year in January 2026 from 1.2% in December, helped by low base effects and stronger services prices. Industrial production is expected to post a fifth month of expansion, with January growth jumping to 20.0% year-on-year on robust electronics and AI-related demand.Prices and tech-heavy output to firm”We expect both core and headline inflation in Singapore to rise to 1.5% yoy in January 2026, up from 1.2% yoy for both indicators in December 2025.””Price pressures have been picking up since 4Q25, following a period of weakness.””For…

US President Donald Trump announced he will invoke a 10% global tariff via Section 122. This is generally what was expected but it’s limited to 150 days unless extended by Congress. It also has some of its own legal challenges and is supposed to be invoked after consulting Congress but it looks like we’re going to skip that step.The thing is, Section 122 was designed for a specific macroeconomic scenario — a genuine balance-of-payments crisis like the kind that troubled policymakers in the 1970s. It was not designed as a general-purpose tariff authority. Using it to reconstruct a global tariff…

The NYT reports:President Trump is planning to invoke new trade authorities in response to the Supreme Court’s ruling overturning his sweeping tariffs, according to two people familiar with his plans, potentially including a new, across-the-board tariff on U.S. trading partners.This is no surprise, many government officials have said this was coming.The report cities:Section 301 (requires an investigation)Section 122 (limited to 150 days and has never been used)Don’t be surprised if Trump pulls the trigger as soon as possible on Section 122, which would put on across the board 15% tariffs but has carve outs for exemptions for some countries. This…

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We are stepping into what might be the most consequential week of the Q4 earnings season. The spotlight is squarely on the AI complex, but we also have a massive slate of consumer and enterprise tech names ready to set the tone for the rest of the quarter.Here is the breakdown of the key events and macro themes to watch.The Macro ThemesThe AI Bellwether: Wednesday afternoon is all about NVIDIA (NVDA). Investors are currently wrestling with elevated valuations and heavy AI spending in mega-cap technology stocks. The market will be looking for clear evidence that this massive infrastructure spend is…

The Atlanta Fed’s initial GDPNow estimate for Q1 2026 real GDP growth came in at 3.1% (annualized) as of February 20, pointing to a solid start to the year.At the same time, the advance estimate for Q4 2025 GDP, released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, showed growth of just 1.4% — a notable downside surprise. That figure came in 1.6 percentage points below the final GDPNow nowcast for the quarter, and well under the Atlanta Fed’s earlier 3.0% forecast.The miss wasn’t limited to the model. Economist expectations were also higher, with a Reuters survey showing estimates ranging from…

Market action in the wake of the tariff decision has been choppy.There aren’t many tariff/Supreme Court experts on trading desks, so markets are understandably confused. Trump and other administration officials have said many times that they have other opportunities to reconstitute tariffs. The initial reaction in markets largely suggests they’re taking that at face value.I’m not sure that’s the right take. The 6-3 decision wasn’t limited and it insists that Congress give clear authority on tariffs. Now Congress has done that with some authorities but those are time limited and/or require investigations. What’s clear is that he will no longer…