Author: FX

DBS Group Research expects Malaysia’s 1Q26 advance Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to grow 5.5% year-on-year, slightly below 6.3% in 4Q25 but still robust. Growth is seen supported by export-oriented electrical and electronics manufacturing, global AI tailwinds, construction and domestic demand. Headline inflation is projected to rise modestly to 1.7% in March, with oil-driven pressures cushioned by fiscal subsidies.AI tailwinds and mild price pressures”Malaysia’s incoming data are likely to reflect resilient economic growth and contained inflation in 1Q26, despite the Middle East shock since February 27.””We expect robust advance GDP growth estimate of 5.5% yoy in 1Q26, albeit lower than 6.3%…

Ceasefire drama, stagflationary data, and a collapsing dollar — the US-Iran conflict ran the FX show this week, reshuffling currency rankings almost every session from open to close. Source link

TD Securities expects China’s March exports to normalize after a strong Jan–Feb report, while imports could surprise on the upside as authorities stockpile key goods and commodities during the US–Iran conflict. Rising input costs may slow production and weigh on exports. The bank projects Q1 GDP at 4.8% y/y, supported by strong exports and manufacturing earlier in the quarter.Stockpiling and costs shape China outlook”After the phenomenal trade report in Jan-Feb, we expect some normalization in Mar for exports.””Imports, however, could surprise to the upside as China may rush to stockpile key goods and commodities amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict.””As input…

ING’s Min Joo Kang notes that KRW is trading below 1,500, with near-term moves heavily dependent on Middle East developments. The team keeps its 1,450–1,550 trading range, expecting KRW to strengthen rapidly if the war ends. They argue recent KRW weakness stems mainly from foreign equity profit-taking, with attractive Korean equity valuations helping to stabilise the currency.War risk and equities drive Won outlook”KRW now trades below 1,500 level. The near-term move will depend heavily on the Middle East situation. Thus, we continue to keep our trading range of 1,450-1,550 for now.””We agree with Governor Rhee’s view: if the war ends,…

The markets had a brief respite from the headlines from the Middle East with the release of the CPI and the later the Michigan Consumer Confidence. The latest US CPI report showed a sharp headline acceleration driven primarily by energy, while underlying inflation trends remained relatively contained. Headline CPI rose 0.9% m/m, in line with expectations but well above the prior 0.3%, lifting the year-over-year pace from 2.4%. The surge was almost entirely due to energy, with the index up 10.2% and gasoline prices jumping over 21% on the month as geopolitical tensions pushed crude higher. Importantly, gasoline prices remain…

DBS Group Research expects Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports to rise for a seventh consecutive month in March 2026, accelerating to 10.3% year-on-year from 4.0% in February. Electronics exports are seen outperforming on global AI demand, while non-electronics may rebound as Lunar New Year base effects fade, though petrochemicals likely face pressure from a Middle East-related naphtha supply crunch.NODX growth led by electronics”We expect Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) to sustain growth for a seventh consecutive month in March 2026, expanding by a faster pace of 10.3% yoy, compared with 4.0% yoy in February.””The performance was likely supported by superior growth…

The Australian Dollar (AUD) is poised to end Friday’s session flat against the US Dollar (USD), even though an improvement in market mood drove the Greenback toward four-week lows near 98.52, according to the US Dollar Index (DXY). Source link

Mary Daly, President of the Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of San Francisco, told Reuters in an interview on Friday that if Iran conflict is resolved quickly and Oil prices come back down, a rate cut may not be out of the question.Key takeaways:If Iran conflict resolves quickly and oil prices come back down, a rate cut is ‘not out of the question’. If inflation stays elevated for longer than anticipated, we would hold steady until we know we are getting the inflation job done. We had work to do on inflation before the oil price shock; now, the work just…

Commerzbank’s Dr. Henry Hao sees upside risks to China’s Q1 2026 GDP versus the bank’s 4.6% forecast, supported by resilient exports and front‑loaded public investment. Industrial production is projected to grow 5.5% year‑on‑year, while retail sales slow to 2.5%. The bank warns that secondary shocks from the Iran war could later erode China’s export advantage and prompt further policy easing.Resilient activity but external risks linger”We expect China to report a Q1 GDP growth of 4.6% yoy.””China’s Q1 GDP faces upside risks to our 4.6% forecast, supported by resilient exports and front-loaded public investment.””We expect March industrial production to grow 5.5%…

Iranian officials land at Nur Khan Airbase in Islamabad under Pakistan’s Air Force escort ahead of peace talks, two Pakistani sources involved in talks Iranian delegation led by Iran’s Parliament Speaker Qalibaf arrived in Islamabad ahead of peace talks with U.S. Iran says talks with U.S. to begin if “preconditions are accepted” – Iranian media Iranian media says Iran’s delegation includes foreign minister, defence council secretary, central bank governor and several parliament membersThe U.S. delegation, led by Vice President JD Vance, and including Jared Kushner and Steve Witkopf are expected to arrive shortly. This article was written by Greg Michalowski…