Author: FX

From a little earlier, Goldman says oil shocks lift rates short term but drive cuts as growth weakensSummary:Goldman says rates rising on oil-driven inflation fears Markets pricing tighter policy in near term Supply shocks create inflation vs growth trade-off Higher oil boosts inflation but drags on activity Historical pattern shows two-stage policy response Rates typically higher in first 1–3 months Rates tend to fall 6–9 months as growth slows Current market reflects early hawkish phase Longer-term path depends on growth impactGoldman Sachs says the sharp rise in developed market interest rates since the start of the Iran war reflects growing…

Read More

The NZD/USD pair rallies sharply on Wednesday, boosted by a double whammy: The de-escalation of the Middle East conflict and hawkish remarks by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor, Anna Breman, following the bank’s monetary policy meeting. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 0.5816 after rebounding at daily lows of 0.5715.NZD/USD Price Forecast: Technical OutlookFrom a technical perspective, NZD/USD is set to consolidate after reaching a two-week high of 0.5860, but it has failed to sustain its gains above the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.5849, which could exacerbate a fall below 0.5800.Nevertheless, momentum…

Read More

Some headlines from the White House press briefing:Iran can no longer distribute weapons to its proxiesIran asked for an agreed to a ceasefireIran has agreed to open HormuzIran’s original plan was discardedIran then put forward a more-reasonable planTrump’s red lines have not changedWe’ve seen an uptick in Strait trafficTrump expects it to be openIt’s hard to know what’s true and what’s spin in any of this.US and Iran to hold first round of talks Saturday in PakistanThere were also talks between top-level of US and ChinaTrump is dispatching team led by Vance to Pakistan This article was written by Adam…

Read More

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil trades sharply lower on Wednesday, falling more than 10% after a temporary ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran reduced the geopolitical risk premium embedded in prices. At the time of writing, WTI is trading near $89.50 per barrel, after hitting an intraday low near $86, marking its lowest level since March 25.US President Donald Trump said on Truth Social that Washington would suspend attacks on Iran for two weeks, provided Tehran ensures the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran signaled that safe transit through the key shipping route could be…

Read More

Headlines:Markets:WTI crude oil down 17% to $93.50European indices up over 4% with the DAX up 5% on the dayS&P 500 futures up 2.8%USD drops across the board10-year Treasury yields down 10 bps to 4.24%Gold up 2% to $4,797, Silver up 6% to $77.27It takes two to tango but even if not exactly the case, markets are sensing relief and scope for more optimism after US president Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran. The positive thing about this is at least the Iranian camp also confirmed the ceasefire. However, there are still some separation as to what negotiations will entail.…

Read More