Author: FX
BNY forecasts that Philippines’s central bank Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) will cut rates by 25 bps to 4.25% (Feb 19), continuing its easing cycle as growth risks dominate. The bank sees inflation as manageable within the medium-term target, with risks skewed toward at least one more cut in Q2 2026. PHP’s cyclical balance-of-payments profile heightens its need for rate support.Further BSP cuts and PHP risks”We expect the BSP to continue its easing cycle with a further 25bp rate cut to 4.25%.””In our view, downside risks to economic growth outweigh near-term upside risks to inflation.””Given lingering domestic political uncertainties and…
The January NFP report delivered a significant upside surprise with 130,000 jobs added versus 40,000 expected, yet the dollar’s initial surge proved short-lived as massive benchmark revisions and hawkish Fed commentary created conflicting signals for traders navigating pre-CPI positioning. Which USD strategies moved beyond the watchlist stage, and how did the better-than-expected headline translate to price action amid sobering labor market revisions and shifting risk sentiment? Watchlists are price outlook & strategy discussions supported by both fundamental & technical analysis, a crucial step towards creating a high-quality discretionary trade idea before working on a risk & trade management plan. If…
It’s a holiday in the US today and markets are closed but it’s also a holiday in China as lunar new year celebrations back up.The most-watched TV show in China annually is the CCTV Spring Festival gala and in the past few years, it’s turned into a demostration of the cutting edge of humanoid robotics. This year’s edition is live right now and what I’ve seen so far is impressive. It’s another leap forward from last year’s edition, which went viral at the time. The martial arts showcased robots operating at at least an elite human level with swords and…
Elon Musk did something unprecedented in Memphis, Tennessee, last year. He built one of the world’s most powerful AI supercomputers (100,000 cutting-edge GPUs) in a matter of months. But here’s the twist: he didn’t wait for the local utility to connect it to the power grid. Instead, he parked a fleet of mobile generators on-site and fired them up immediately. This wasn’t a backup plan. This was the plan. And it’s becoming the new normal across the entire AI industry. Why Speed Became More Valuable Than Efficiency Here’s a number that explains why Musk, and every other tech giant racing…
MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Lee Hardman notes that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is widely expected to keep the Official Cash Rate unchanged at its first 2026 meeting (Feb 18), after signalling November’s cut was the last of the cycle. However, markets have started to price a possible rate hike by Q3, making any hawkish change in guidance a key focus for NZD traders.Policy on hold but hike risk priced”The RBNZ will hold its first policy meeting of 2026 this week. The central bank is widely expected to leave the OCR on hold, having delivered what was signalled to…
Monday begins quietly, with U.S. markets closed for Presidents’ Day. In China, markets will also be affected by the Spring Festival holiday. On Tuesday, the U.K. will release the claimant count change, the average earnings index 3m/y, and the unemployment rate. In Canada, the focus will be on inflation data. Wednesday brings the RBNZ monetary policy announcement in New Zealand, while the U.K. will publish its latest inflation figures. On Thursday, Australia will release employment change and the unemployment rate, and the U.S. will report weekly unemployment claims. Friday will see the release of flash manufacturing and services PMIs for…
Gold (XAU/USD) remains depressed through the early European session on Monday, though it has managed to rebound from the daily trough and currently trades around the $5,000 psychological mark. Moreover, a combination of supporting factors warrants some caution for aggressive bearish traders, and before positioning for deeper losses.A modest US Dollar (USD) uptick, along with a generally positive risk tone, exerts some downward pressure on the safe-haven bullion. However, geopolitical risks remain in play ahead of the second round of US-Iran nuclear talks this week. In fact, the US has dispatched a second aircraft carrier to the region and is…
The stochastic oscillator tracks momentum by comparing the most recent closing price to the price range over a specific lookback period. It’s displayed as two lines %K (the fast line) and %D (the slow signal line) that fluctuate between 0 and 100. Here’s what it’s really telling you: When the stochastic reads 80 or above, the current price is near the top of its recent range. When it drops below 20, price is trading near the bottom of that range. Think of it as a snapshot of whether bulls or bears have been winning the recent battle. The standard MT5…
Australia’s BlueScope Steel beats profit estimates, lifts outlook; shares fall Source link
Trend traders huddle up! GBP/AUD is turning lower from a key trend resistance zone that could draw in more selling pressure over the next few sessions. Is the pair ready to extend a months-long downtrend? GBP/AUD 4-hour Forex Chart Faster with TradingView Threats to U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s leadership kept the British pound on the defensive against fellow risk currencies like the Australian dollar last week. The Aussie, meanwhile, was one of the strongest performers. Rising gold prices, hawkish remarks from RBA members, and optimism around a possible extension of the U.S.-China trade truce all gave it a solid…