Author: FX

Standard Chartered’s Senior Economist Tommy Wu raises Hong Kong’s 2026 GDP growth forecast to 3.2% from 2.5%, citing robust Q4 momentum, stronger financial activity and improving consumer sentiment. The bank expects a modest housing market rebound but remains cautiously optimistic due to structural shifts and global risks. HIBOR is seen lower in H1 before gradually rising again by Q4.Growth upgraded but risks still present”We raise our 2026 GDP growth forecast to 3.2% (from 2.5%), given the robust growth momentum in Q4.””We expect the financial industry to capitalise on Hong Kong’s regained impetus, notably in IPO fundraising and Renminbi internationalisation.””Consumer sentiment…

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UOB economists Julia Goh and Loke Siew Ting note Malaysia’s 4Q25 GDP grew 6.3% year-on-year, the fastest since 4Q22, lifting full-year 2025 growth to 5.2%. They project real GDP growth to slow to 4.5% in 2026 as base effects and external uncertainties weigh, though domestic demand, investment, tourism and AI-related activity are expected to keep overall expansion solid.Domestic demand cushions slower 2026 GDP”Going forward, we expect real GDP growth to moderate to 4.5% in 2026 (from 5.2% in 2025, MOF est: 4.0%-4.5%) amid persistent external uncertainties and base effects.””Domestic demand should remain the key anchor, supported by continued government policy…

Silver (XAG/USD) price advances on Friday, bouncing off daily lows around $74 and posting gains of over 2.50%, yet it is poised to end the week on a negative note. A softer-than-expected US inflation report pushed the white metal higher, and it trades at $77.20 a troy ounce ahead of the weekend.XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlookSilver is down 0.85% in the week, after beginning the week at around $80.00. Nevertheless, US stocks plunged on Thursday, pushing XAG downward, which has recently moved in sympathy with equities.The Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests that the precious metal is poised to trade sideways,…

The US House voted against tariffs this week and the Senate is expected to follow suit. They will surely be vetoed by President Trump but that move gives some cover to the Supreme Court ahead of its big decision on tariffs.The court today announced that Feb 20, 24 and 25 will all be ‘decision days’ or days when they will render opinions. As a reminder, they don’t pre-announce which cases they will be ruling on, so it could be tariffs and it could be one of the other dozens of cases before the court.Officials have until June to make a…

Commerzbank analysts explain that India’s new CPI series shows January inflation at 2.8% year-on-year, back within the RBI’s 2–6% target band. The reweighted basket reduces food’s share and should damp volatility. With inflation contained and growth supported by fiscal policy and trade deals, RBI is expected to keep the policy rate unchanged at 5.25%.Inflation reweighting and policy implications”January CPI rose 2.8% yoy in the new CPI series with 2024 as the base year vs 1.3% in December under the old series with the base year of 2014.””Under the new CPI series, inflation returned to the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI)…

Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee noted on Friday during an interview with Yahoo Finance that although interest rates are poised to come down further, moves on policy rates are contingent on further taming of services inflation.Key highlightsCPI data had some encouraging bits, and some concerns.We’re still seeing pretty-high services inflation.I hope we’ve seen the peak impact of tariffs.Strong January job data hopefully a sign of stability. Job market has been steady and only modest cooling.I think interest rates can still go down a fair bit more.We just need to see the progress on inflation.Rates can still…

The US Dollar (USD) lost major ground over the week, briefly gaining some strength after better-than-expected United States (US) jobs data, as the January Nonfarm Payrolls report showed 130K new jobs were added. Also, the Unemployment Rate fell to 4.3% from 4.4%. The US released a softer-than-expected January Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Friday, weighing on the USD.The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading near 96.80, declining from 97.15 highs following the release of soft inflation CPI data that fueled bets on a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut later in the year. Next week, the spotlight heads to Friday…

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee spoke with Yahoo Finance today and had some notable comments:Encouraging and concerning parts in latest CPIWe are still seeing pretty high services inflationHopes we’ve seen the peak impact of tariffsThe job market has been steady, only modest coolingRates can still go down but need to see progress on inflationConsumers should hold up if the jobs market is stable and inflation easesI don’t know how restrictive Fed policy isHigh services inflation is worrisomeWe are not on a path back to 2% inflation, stuck around 3%December CPI came in slightly cooler than expected, with headline inflation rising…

Standard Chartered’s Senior Economist Tommy Wu raises Taiwan’s 2026 GDP growth forecast to 8.0% from 3.8%, citing strong Q4-2025 expansion and robust global semiconductor demand. The bank expects economic momentum to stay firm through 2026, supported by booming ICT and electronics exports and a recent US trade deal, while growth remains uneven and income disparity may widen.AI-driven export boom lifts outlook”We raise our 2026 GDP growth forecast to 8.0% (from 3.8%) following strong Q4-2025 growth of 12.7% y/y and 2025 growth of 8.7%. The forecast upgrade in part reflects Q4’s strong q/q growth momentum (at 5.4%). While we expect some…