Author: FX

Gold (XAU/USD) price makes a U-turn on Friday and trims some of Thursday’s losses, rising nearly 2% following the release of a softer-than-expected inflation report in the US, which increased speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could lower rates. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades above the $5,000 milestone.XAU/USD rallies nearly 2% after cooler US inflation data fuels renewed expectations of a June rate reductionThe US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in January fell below estimates of 2.5%, coming at 2.4% YoY, down from December’s 2.7%. Initially, the print is good news for…

We are done with the big banks and Big Tech. Now we get the real economy. Next week’s earnings calendar is a tug-of-war between the resilient service-spending consumer and the battered industrial/goods sector.Here is the playbook for the week.Walmart (WMT)Thursday (Before Open) If “General Merch” (electronics, clothes, home goods) is positive, the consumer is feeling confident. If growth is purely from Grocery (inflation-driven necessities), the consumer is gasping for air. On inflation, watch for comments on deflation in goods. If Walmart mentions “rolling back prices” aggressively to move inventory, that’s a disinflationary signal for the Fed (and bearish for margins).2.…

US stocks have turned around nicely today led by the Russell 2000, which is up 1.8%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are both up 0.6% and eyes are on software stocks. The IGV software ETF is up 2.3% after an utterly bruising performance so far this year.IGV ETF dailyI’m careful not to lean too hard on this index because 20% of it is Microsoft and I see it as more of a disrupter than a disruptee. That said, it’s been beaten up as well.If you look at the chart, it’s found some support at last week’s lows and if that…

It’s not a proper investing theme until there is an acronym.I’ve been writing for a few weeks about old economy stocks making a comeback but it’s been tough to frame exactly the kinds of companies that are best built for what’s coming. The market is frightened by disruption and that’s why software stocks have seen a massive re-rating lower, with many falling 30-50% in a few weeks. There’s a cottage industry developing in commentating on which software companies will actually be disrupted by AI but to me, it’s tough to say in the software and tech space as the essential…

National Bank Of Canada’s Ethan Currie and Taylor Schleich stress that the U.S. fiscal trajectory remains unsustainable despite additional tariff revenues. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) now projects more cumulative deficits versus its prior outlook, with the One, Big, Beautiful Bill and stricter immigration policy worsening the picture. Political uncertainty over future tariff policy adds another layer of risk to the U.S. macro backdrop.Unsustainable deficits and tariff uncertainty”This won’t come as news, but the U.S. federal government is on an unsustainable fiscal path.””And even though tariffs were promised to be a source of fiscal consolidation, the broader deficit / debt…

Sector Overview: A Mixed Day Across the MarketThe stock market today showcases a complex landscape, with varied performances across sectors. Leading the charge, the healthcare sector is basking in green, while technology shows a mix of highs and lows.📈 Healthcare: Eli Lilly (LLY) surged by 1.40%, riding on positive sentiments, while Merck (MRK) continues its upward trend with a 1.92% increase. Collectively, these gains underscore robust investor confidence in drug manufacturers.📉 Technology: Mixed emotions run through technology stocks, with Oracle (ORCL) experiencing a promising 1.69% rise, but Nvidia (NVDA) dwindling slightly by 0.41%. The semiconductor space struggles as Micron (MU)…

It might be the result of a brutally cold winter so far but Canadian consumer spending dipped in January, according to the latest spending tracker from RBC.Using cardholder data, Canada’s largest bank indicated that spending fell across discretionary goods, services and essentials in the month.The bank downplayed the decline, noting that it came after a particularly strong December.December had been an especially strong for goods tied to holiday shopping, and January largely retraced some of those earlier gains. The reversal points to a normalization following elevated year-end spending rather than a sudden deterioration in household demand.Essentials spending also declined in…

Prior was +2.7%m/m CPI +0.2% vs +0.3% expected Prior m/m reading was +0.3%Real weekly earnings +0.5% vs -0.3% prior (revised to -0.5%)Core inflation :Ex food and energy +2.5% vs +2.5% y/y expectedPrior ex food and energy +2.5%Core m/m +0.3% vs +0.3% exp Prior core m/m +0.2%Core goods +1.1%Core services +2.9% y/ySupercore +2.7% y/yUnrounded numbers:Core +0.281% m/m seasonally adjusted, +0.437% NSAThere has been a slight dovish shift in Fed pricing following the data and we can see that in a softer US dollar as well. S&P 500 futures are now flat, erasing the earlier decline.Notably, October CPI data was not collected…

Forex trading means dealing with risk and uncertainty every single day. And when money is on the line, your brain doesn’t exactly throw a party. It throws stress. But hold up. Isn’t stress supposed to be bad? The only good thing about “stressed” is that it’s “desserts” spelled backwards. Heh. Unless your broker starts paying you in cupcakes, that doesn’t help much. Remember that stress isn’t always the villain. When handled well, stress triggers your fight or flight response. Your senses sharpen. Your focus tightens. It’s like your brain slams the “game time” button. For traders, this is the kind…

Bank of England’s Pill says underlying inflation running at about 2.5% Source link