Author: FX

Diverging central bank moves, top-tier data releases, and renewed geopolitical tensions kept volatility elevated across FX markets. Source link

Is the long-term bull market in the US dollar finally over?Plenty of research notes this week highlight the end of the era of ‘American exceptionalism’ and that’s been a trading theme so far this year as the US dollar has sagged (though it’s bounced a tad today). In any case, the speculative money has been squeezed out of the US dollar futures trade with CFTC positioning data showing that net USD positioning is short for the first time this year. Source link

The USD was mixed in trading this week. How did the greenback do vs the major currencies? Looking at the change % below, the dollar is higher vs the EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD and NZD. It is lower vs the CHF and the CAD. The biggest gain was vs the AUD at 0.79%. The greenback fell by -0.14% vs both the CHF and the CAD. During the week the negative rates unchanged, the Swiss National Bank rates by 25 basis points, the US Federal Reserve Rates unchanged in the Bank of England also kept its rates the same.Below is a…

USDJPY technicalsUSDJPY has shown more bullish momentum as the day comes to the end of the week. The USDJPY price has now stretched above the 100-hour moving average (MA) and a key swing area, signaling potential further upside. Earlier today at session lows, the buyers leaned near the 200-hour MA, reinforcing support and providing a base for the current upward movement.Key Technical Observations:100-hour MA Breakout: The price has broken above the 100-hour MA (149.18), indicating bullish control.200-hour MA as Support: Buyers held firm near the 200-hour MA (148.72), confirming it as a key support zone.Ascending Channel Formation: The price is…

EUR/USD weeklyThe euro is on track to finish the week slightly lower but that follows two weeks of gains on a German agreement to suspend the debt brake in what the market sees as a shift to a more-active fiscal policy.With that, analysts at CIBC see a steadily rising euro over the course of the forecast horizon to end 2026 when they see EUR/USD hitting 1.15. Part of that is the ‘loss of American exceptionalism’ that’s a theme that’s gripped the FX market.On the way to 1.15, CIBC sees the euro finishing this year at 1.12.Structural reform accompanied by German…

Oil -1 at 486Natural gas +2 at 102Total rigs +1 at 593The price of crude oil is trading up $0.32 and $68.39. For the week, the price is up about 1.8%. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com. Source link

GBP/USD slips as trader war fears, central bank uncertainty weigh The Pound Sterling (GBP) is dropping some 0.29% against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, set to end the week unchanged after major central banks featured monetary policy decisions led by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of England (BoE). At the time of writing, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2931 after hitting a daily peak of 1.2969. Read More… Pound Sterling underperforms US Dollar as Fed supports restrictive policy stance The Pound Sterling (GBP) extends correction to near 1.2920 against the US Dollar (USD) in North American trading hours on Friday. The GBP/USD pair weakens as the US Dollar extends…

Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of New York John Williams noted during an appearance at the Biennial Macroeconometric Caribbean Conference, in Nassau, that the Fed’s job of forecasting economic outcomes is becoming increasingly difficult, specifically under the weight of trade war threats from the Trump administration. Key highlights The Fed’s current forecasted rate path looks reasonable. Downside economic risks and upside inflation risks are both very high. The key issue for monetary policy is managing risks and uncertainties. The US central bank is not in a hurry to make the next monetary policy decision. It has become harder to forecast the outlook right…

EUR/USD was seen trading around the 1.0820 area after the European session, falling for a third consecutive day. Despite shedding over 1% this week, the recent bullish crossover between the 100- and 200-day SMAs may provide a strong base. Momentum indicators turn bearish, with RSI dropping sharply and MACD printing a fresh red bar. EUR/USD declined on Friday’s session after the European close, moving near the 1.0820 zone as the pair tallied a third straight day in the red. After a strong rally earlier in the month, the pair has lost over 1% this week, with momentum indicators now flashing…

The US Dollar pops for third day on geopolitical concerns. The Greenback appreciates despite a drop in US yields and the Fed’s commitment to cut rates.  The US Dollar Index tries for a second day in a row to break out of the March low range.  The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is able to print a third consecutive day of gains, trading around 104.00 at the time of writing on Friday. The DXY tries to move away from the 2025 low at 103.20 reached on Tuesday, after…