Author: FX
US President Donald Trump took time out of his Oval Office address to deliver new information about impending tariffs on Canada. While addressing the press in the White House, President Trump lobbed a fresh tariff threat, which may or may not come today, or on Monday, or on Tuesday. The statement comes less than 24 hours after the Trump administration temporarily waived tariffs on all USMCA-associated goods, and the reaffirmation that reciprocal tariffs will happen in April also appears to have fallen by the wayside. Key highlights Canada has tremendously high tariffs on lumber. We will shrink the government and…
USD/MXN retreats as US trade policies overshadow economic data. Mexico’s inflation beats forecasts, but Banxico still expected to cut rates on March 27. USMCA four-week exemptions are secured, but tariffs on steel and aluminum remain in place. US Dollar weakens despite solid NFP; markets price in 80 bps of Fed cuts in 2025. The Mexican Peso (MXN) registers modest gains against the US Dollar (USD) and remains unable to reach a new weekly high, as the exotic pair seems to have found a floor near 20.22. A mildly hot inflation report in Mexico and solid US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) figures…
Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell stuck to his cautious guns on Friday, warning that policy uncertainty makes it difficult for the Fed to enact policy adjustments. Key highlights Uncertainty around Trump Administration policies and their economic effects remains high. Most longer-term inflation expectations remain stable, consistent with 2% goal. Net effect of trade, immigration, fiscal, and regulation policy is what matters for the economy anf monetary policy. Fed policy is not on preset course. We can maintain policy restraint for longer if inflation progress stalls or ease if labor market unexpectedly weakens or inflation falls more than expected. Labor…
Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler indicated that rising inflation risks provided a strong argument for keeping interest rates steady for an extended period. Key Quotes Sees steady monetary policy ‘for some time’ on recent inflation data. Strongly supported steady rate policy at January FOMC. Future Fed policy changes will be driven by data. There are important upside risks to inflation. Flags big rise in some inflation expectations readings. Inflation has been moving sideways for a while. Job market has substantially rebalanced. Wages are not a key driver of inflation pressures. Source link
The S&P 500 and NASDAQ are both down nearly 1% on the day, hitting new session lows. The NASDAQ has dropped -196.47 points (-1.09%) to 17,872, The S&P 500 is down -53.5 points (-0.94%) at 5,685.The S&P 500 is now pulling further away from its 200-day moving average at 5,732.70, signaling growing downside momentum. Meanwhile, the NASDAQ is on track to close below its 50-week moving average for the first time since March 2023, adding to technical concerns.This marks the third consecutive weekly decline for the NASDAQ after falling -2.51% two weeks ago and -3.47% last week. Currently, the index…
Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman, regarded as one of the bank’s most hawkish policymakers, indicated that she might place greater emphasis on labour market indicators when considering future policy decisions. Key Quotes Labor market, economic activity will become a larger factor in US central bank policy discussions going forward. Shocks, structural changes since Covid-19 pandemic may have masked transmission of Fed policy to the economy. Source link
Headlines:Markets:EUR leads, AUD lags on the dayEuropean equities lower; S&P 500 futures up 0.1%US 10-year yields down 2.7 bps to 4.255%Gold up 0.4% to $2,922.09WTI crude up 1.2% to $67.17Bitcoin down 0.4% to $89,078It’s all about the US jobs report as we look to the final stretch of the week.The dollar is trading more mixed in general, with the euro continuing to scale higher and eyeing the next leg up ahead of the weekend. EUR/USD moved up from 1.0820 earlier to a high of 1.0870 before backing off slightly now to 1.0850.The gains in the single currency is also keeping…
EUR/USD daily chartIt’s been a blockbuster of a week for the euro and it’s not over just yet. EUR/USD is now up another 0.6% to 1.0854 currently and if my calculations are correct, is poised to post its best weekly performance since December 2008. In just a span of five days, we’re suddenly closer to 1.1000 than we are to parity talk. Wild.While this is all coming amid a softer dollar as well, it can’t be denied that the large chunk of the gains owes to a strong bids in the euro currency itself. The technical and fundamental stars lined…
NZD/USD may aim for initial resistance at the three-month high of 0.5794, reached on January 24. The 14-day Relative Strength Index remains above 50, reinforcing the bullish outlook. Immediate support is seen at the psychological level of 0.5700, aligning with the 50-day EMA at 0.5698. The NZD/USD pair loses ground after registering gains in the previous four successive sessions, trading around 0.5720 during European trading hours on Friday. Technical analysis of the daily chart indicates a bullish bias, with the pair trending higher within a newly formed ascending channel pattern. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above the 50…
Morning Bid: Payrolls and Powell provide focal point Source link