Author: FX
Halfway through 2026, it’s time to check whether your trading goals still match your process, performance, and current market reality. Source link
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWUSD:The US dollar has been supported since the last FOMC decision as the more hawkish than expected dot plot led to a quick repricing in interest rate expectations with traders increasing rate hike probabilities. There is now 32 bps of tightening priced in by year-end. There’s a 29% chance of a hike in July and 62% probability of a move in September.There’s been a slightly dovish repricing in the last few days. One of the reasons could be the huge selloff in oil prices which have now reached pre-war levels. The other reason is that the hawkish repricing might…
MUFG’s Lee Hardman notes the US Dollar index (DXY) is trading just below year-to-date highs, with the US Dollar posting a second straight week of gains after the Fed’s hawkish update. He highlights widening expectations for monetary policy divergence versus Europe, outlines scenarios for EUR/USD between 1.1400–1.1800 or below 1.1000, and maintains a long USD/NOK recommendation.Fed divergence underpins Dollar strength”In our latest FX Weekly report on Friday we highlighted how widening expectations for monetary policy divergence between the Fed and other major central banks particularly in Europe have triggered a bullish break out for the US dollar.””We see two main…
It’s going to be a bit of a hectic week, and a holiday-shortened one at that, with US markets closing early on Thursday and then closing on Friday in the run up to Independence Day. As such, that will see a lot of things being crammed together over the next four days for markets.So, let’s take a look at some of the key things to focus on.US-Iran developmentsOver the weekend, tensions are flaring up again after Iran struck a commercial cargo vessel, the Kiku, in the Strait of Hormuz. After some light back and forth exchanges with the US, both…
Gold price (XAU/USD) pares daily losses, remaining in the negative territory and trading around $4,070 during the Asian hours on Monday. The price of the yellow metal struggles as military clashes between the United States (US) and Iran in the strategic Strait of Hormuz have pushed oil prices higher and reignited fears of inflation. Investors remain highly sensitive to breaking news out of the Middle East as they continuously re-evaluate the region’s stability and its broader influence on global risk sentiment.However, the Gold price recovered some intraday losses as Washington and Tehran agreed to a temporary truce ahead of crucial…
EUR/USD is testing a key long-term floor while the Fed chair and ECB president share the same stage this week. The pair has dropped sharply from its 2026 highs, and now it’s facing the same two forces that drove it lower in the first place: Fed hawkishness and a stronger dollar. At the same time, the charts are flashing deeply oversold readings, so bears may need fresh fuel to keep the pressure on. Let’s break down EUR/USD’s key technical levels this week: Source link
A weekend of tit-for-tat strikes between the U.S. and Iran blew a hole in the month-old ceasefire deal, putting WTI crude, gold, and the dollar back on edge heading into a jobs-heavy week. What Actually Happened? Let’s back up a few days to set the stage for what went down between the U.S. and Iran over the weekend. On Thursday, June 26, an Iranian drone hit the Ever Lovely, a Singapore-flagged container ship navigating the Strait of Hormuz along a U.S.-supported route near Oman. After that, the U.S. military struck Iranian missile and radar sites along the coast on Friday.…
Japan targets more than doubling real growth to over 1% in economic blueprint Source link
The scale of the announcement, if investments materialise at the reported $651 billion level over the coming years, represents a structural demand signal for the global semiconductor supply chain, advanced manufacturing equipment and AI infrastructure buildout. SK Hynix in particular warrants close attention given its pivotal role in high-bandwidth memory supply for AI accelerators; any confirmed capacity expansion in a new location adds long-term supply optionality but introduces near-term execution uncertainty that the market will need to price. Korean utility and infrastructure names are the immediate domestic read-through, given the government’s commitment to cover power, water and land support. The…
The former Greater Manchester mayor and the Labour lawmaker, Andy Burnham, will outline his vision for the United Kingdom (UK) on Monday, the Guardian reported. Last Monday, Keir Starmer faced political pressure and announced he would step down as leader of the ruling Labour Party. The schedule to pick a successor could see Burnham installed as Prime Minister as soon as July 17, if no other challenger emerges.Burnham will set out on Monday how he’d “lift Britain back up” by devolving UK power from London to regions. His key pledges include “good growth in every postcode”, creation of a “No. 10…