Author: FX
UOB’s Global Economics & Markets Research, via Julia Goh and Loke Siew Ting, notes that the central bank of the Philippines, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) kept the RRP (Reverse Repurchase Rate) rate at 4.25% in an off-cycle meeting as supply-driven inflation and Middle East risks intensify. The bank expects a prolonged policy pause, with core inflation and second-round effects guiding decisions and fiscal policy taking a larger role.BSP seen on prolonged policy pause”In view of the fluid situation and uncertainty over the duration and severity of the Middle East conflict, we maintain a cautious stance and continue to expect…
Markets:WTI crude oil up $5.59 to $100.07S&P 500 down 1.7% to 6368Gold up $135 to $4513US 10-year yields up 3.6 bps to 5.00%Bitcoin down 4.2%USD leads, GBP lagsIt was an ugly one for most markets today, with the exception of gold and oil. The Nasdaq fell to a six month low as war worries extended throughout the day. The positive backdrop of Trump extending his deadline to strike power facilities yesterday ultimately failed. The thinking is that the 10 day extension will add more pain and that a deal doesn’t look promising.As oil steadily climbed it pushed yields higher and…
Silver (XAG/USD) price turns positive on Friday after posting back-to-back bearish sessions, as heightened tensions in the Middle East decreased the white metal’s safe-haven appeal, prompting traders to turn to the US Dollar (USD). Nevertheless, buyers emerged, pushing XAG/USD higher and driving it near the $70.00 figure, up 2.70%.XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical OutlookSilver price seems poised to consolidate further after falling below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which remains above the spot price as a key resistance level at $73.66.Bears remain in charge, as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), though the index has been trending upwards towards…
Commerzbank economists Dr. Henry Hao and Volkmar Baur say China’s industrial profits surged early in 2026, led by AI-related electronics, but this strength predates the recent energy shock. With higher Oil prices now squeezing downstream margins and ending producer-price deflation via cost-push inflation, they argue the PBoC is unlikely to allow a strong CNY appreciation that could further hurt exporters.Energy shock complicates currency stance”This energy shock could act as a double-edged sword.””This results in a two-speed economy where upstream energy giants hoard profits at the expense of the broader factory floor.””While the end of the deflationary drag removes a persistent…
This day just keeps getting worse.At the start of trading Monday it looked like Trump was on track to get some kind of ceasefire by now. Instead, we have talk of bombing steel plants and now this.The Houthis in Yemen say they will enter the conflict on the side of Iran if any alliance joins the US and Israel. The possible chokepoint now is the the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which they could try to blockade. If so, it’s not as devastating as the Strait of Hormuz because the traffic can go through the Suez canal. But it makes the trip…
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DBS Group Research expects Indonesia’s March CPI inflation to stay firm at 4% year-on-year, slightly below February’s 4.8%, but with a faster monthly pace. Analysts highlight the impact of higher energy prices and festive demand, as well as base effects. Policy options include holding retail fuel prices via budget savings, though prolonged conflict could force price hikes or subsidy cuts.CPI seen firm on energy and holidays”March inflation is expected to remain firm at 4% yoy, compared to 4.8% in the previous month, with a faster month-on-month pace than earlier averages, reflecting the initial impact of elevated energy prices and festival-driven…
Gold (XAU/USD) price rallies over 3% on Friday as dip buyers emerge, amid the conflict entering its fifth week of hostilities, with no signs of de-escalation, and as inflation pressures rise. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $4,510 after bouncing off daily lows of $4,375.Heightened geopolitical tensions underpin Gold, Oil and the US DollarMarket sentiment remains dismal as US equities fall to 7-month lows. The rise in US Treasury bond yields and broad US Dollar strength has not been an excuse for bullion buyers, who are driving prices higher amid growing uncertainty over the Middle East conflict.The US…
The market continues to bid up oil. WTI settled up $5.16 to $99.64 but shortly before settlement it hit $100 per barrel for the first time since Monday, when Trump pushed back his deadline.The market is increasingly seeing longer timelines on resolving this war.WTI daily chartEyes are also on the steel market. A US-Israeli strike occurred today on a large Iranian steel plant. In response, Iran has just released a target list of steel plants it will hit in the coming hours.Kuwait Steel (United Steel Industrial Corporation) — Kuwait City, KuwaitEMSTEEL Group (United Iron and Steel Company) — Abu Dhabi,…
Societe Generale’s Kunal Kundu analyses how the Iran conflict exposes India’s macro vulnerabilities through imported energy dependence and trade route risks. Kundu highlights broad spillovers from higher Oil and gas prices into the consumption basket and external balances. He argues for a calibrated fiscal–monetary mix, with the central bank treating inflation as transitory and targeted government support for households.Imported energy strains and policy response”Four weeks into the Iran conflict, uncertainty remains the only constant. India is feeling the fallout, exposing macro vulnerabilities in energy security, trade logistics, price stability, and external balances.””Despite oil intensity of GDP trending lower and a…