Author: FX

Commerzbank’s Economic Research report highlights a significant rise in German industrial orders, which increased by 7.8% in December, marking the second consecutive month of growth. The report notes that while this growth is largely due to big ticket orders, the core figure excluding these orders also rose by 0.9%. This trend suggests a potential end to the downturn in the industrial sector, with expectations of stronger growth in the economy.Positive trends in German industrial orders”German industrial orders rose significantly in December for the second month in a row, up 7.8% compared to November. As in November, this growth is largely…

Read More

For decades, every U.S. administration, Republican and Democrat alike, has championed the “strong dollar policy.” But Trump has thrown that playbook out the window recently, publicly celebrating dollar weakness as a path to manufacturing revival and export growth. This represents one of the most dramatic shifts in U.S. currency policy in modern history. Wait, what? Isn’t a strong currency supposed to be a good thing and vice versa? Here’s what’s really happening, why it matters for markets and your wallet, and what beginner traders need to understand about currency strength and weakness. The Basics: What Happened? The Dollar’s Historic Collapse…

Read More

Growth driven by services, notably in IT and communicationsManufacturing is resilientFood inflation increasedConstruction momentum picking upGovernment spending should strengthen demandIndications of underlying inflation have changed little in recent months and remain consistent with costsForward looking indicators and surveys point to a continued moderation in labor costsMost measures of longer-term inflation around 2%Uncertainty could weigh on demandInflation could turn out higher if there is persistent upward shift in energy pricesThe euro is higher since the speech started but that’s because US initial jobless claims were released and they showed a jump. Combined with a poor Challenger job cuts report and soft…

Read More

Governor Andrew Bailey took questions from reporters, offering markets a clearer sense of how the central bank was thinking. His remarks followed the widely expected decision to keep the policy rate on hold at 3.75%.BoE Bailey press conference highlightsDisinflation is on track and is running ahead of the schedule expected in November.Recent developments provide more confidence that inflation is on track to return to the target soon.It is necessary to ensure that inflation falls all the way back to 2% and stays there.The economy is not currently facing a situation in which monetary policy is being hit by big new…

Read More

Prior +5.6%; revised to +5.7%That’s a huge beat on estimates as German manufacturing orders surged once again in December, after a big jump in November last year as well. A lot of that is to do with a massive increase in large orders though. If you strip that out of the report, new orders were only 0.9% higher than in the previous month.The less volatile three-month comparison shows new orders in Q4 being up 9.5% than in Q3. Excluding large orders, that figure is a 2.5% increase.Looking at the details, the surge in industrial orders in December owes much to…

Read More

The Next Candle Prediction MT5 indicator attempts to solve this timing puzzle by analyzing recent price behavior and projecting the likely direction of the upcoming candle. It doesn’t promise crystal balls or guaranteed wins, but it does offer traders an additional data point for decision-making. Whether it lives up to the hype depends on how traders use it—and that’s what this guide explores. Understanding the Mechanics Behind Next Candle Prediction At its core, this indicator uses historical price patterns and momentum calculations to estimate where the next candle might close. Most versions analyze the previous 3-10 candles, looking at factors…

Read More

Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister analyzes the Bank of England’s current stance on interest rates, highlighting the potential for surprises despite no expected changes at the upcoming meeting. The report notes the delicate balance the BoE faces between persistent inflation and weakening growth, suggesting that the risks to the Pound may lean towards further interest rate cuts.Bank of England’s cautious approach”If the vote is closer than expected, the market will likely bring forward its expectations of a rate cut and the pound will suffer.””On the other hand, the new forecasts will be published, the first since the budget announcement at the end…

Read More