Author: FX
Xi-Trump summit may yield farm deal, but China has limited soybean appetite Source link
Markets are expecting a significantly upbeat U.S. CPI to tip the scales in favor of Fed tightening soon, but what if the numbers fail to impress? Our Event Guide for the U.S. CPI points out that the prevailing stagflation narrative raises the bar for war-related price pressures to convince the Fed to act. Here’s what I’m watching on USD/CHF and AUD/USD in this scenario. Source link
Japan’s Finance Minister Katayama said she held a two-hour meeting with US Treasury Secretary Bessent covering forex markets, financial cooperation, critical minerals and AI supply chains. Summary:Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama confirmed she met with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent for two hours on Monday eveningThe discussions covered financial market conditions, with foreign exchange markets explicitly included on the agendaBoth sides reaffirmed close bilateral cooperation based on a joint statement concluded last yearThe talks also encompassed broader international cooperation on critical mineral supply chains and artificial intelligence Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama confirmed on Tuesday that she held a two-hour…
VWAP stands for Volume-Weighted Average Price. Unlike a simple moving average that treats every price equally, VWAP weights each price by the volume traded at that level. The result is a single line showing where the majority of trading activity has occurred during a session. The calculation works like this: for each candle, multiply the typical price (high + low + close divided by three) by the volume. Then divide the cumulative sum of those values by the cumulative total volume. That’s it. The math isn’t complicated, but the interpretation is what separates traders who use it well from those…
Iranian Parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf warned on Monday that Iran’s military was fully prepared to retaliate against any future attacks after rising tensions threatened the fragile ceasefire in the Middle East, Reuters reported. Ghalibaf said on X that Iran’s armed forces remained on high alert and capable of responding decisively to any aggression.Earlier Monday, US President Donald Trump said the ceasefire between the United States (US) and Iran is on “massive life support” after he rejected Tehran’s latest peace offer, which he called “simply unacceptable,” Bloomberg reported on Monday.Iran responded to latthe latest peace proposal by demanding a lifting of Washington’s…
The Bank of Japan will release its ‘Summary’ of the April meeting today. This was an ‘on hold’ meeting, but was eventful. From the day:The Bank of Japan left its short-term policy rate unchanged at 0.75%, as widely expected, but delivered a significantly more hawkish inflation outlook alongside the decision, sharply revising up its price forecasts while acknowledging that the Iran war and elevated crude oil prices are clouding Japan’s growth trajectory.The decision to hold was not unanimous. Three board members, Nakagawa, Takata and Tamura, proposed raising the short-term rate target to 1.0% from 0.75%, a move that was turned…
Rabobank’s Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley notes Japanese wage data have improved, with unions securing solid ‘shunto’ wage hikes and real wages rising again, supporting the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) desired virtuous cycle. However, Foley highlight risks from the Iran war, potential Hormuz disruption, and weakening consumer confidence, while a government panel urges the BoJ to consider funding conditions even as Governor Ueda stresses still very accommodative real yields.Wage progress meets demand and funding risks”In late March, unions reported an average wage hike of 5.36% in the ‘shunto’ spring wage talks. Last week’s Japanese wage data release was softer than…
New Zealand’s Q1 2026 employment report delivered a modest but meaningful beat against expectations, as the jobless rate ticked lower while wage growth accelerated. Combined with a generally risk-on lean from cautious optimism for a US-Iran peace deal, the results kept the Kiwi supported while RBNZ expectations remained well-anchored. Watchlists are price outlook & strategy discussions supported by both fundamental & technical analysis, a crucial step towards creating a high-quality discretionary trade idea before working on a risk & trade management plan. If you’d like to follow our “Watchlist” picks right when they are published throughout the week, check out…
Veeco Q1 2026 slides: AI demand fuels growth outlook despite earnings miss Source link
The USDCHF continues to lean against its 100-hour moving average as a key resistance barometer. Corrective rallies last week stalled against that moving average on Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday — and today’s rally attempt once again failed near the same level. If buyers are to take back more control, the pair needs to break above and stay above the 100-hour MA at 0.77913. Until that happens, the buyers are not winning the technical battle.On the downside, the pair has moved back below a key swing area along with the 61.8% retracement of the move up from the January 2026…