Author: FX

NZD/USD drops sharply on Friday, settling around 0.5830. Pair faces strong resistance at the 20-day SMA, which remains unbroken. Indicators show weakening buying traction, reinforcing the bearish outlook. The NZD/USD pair extended its decline on Friday, plunging to 0.5830 after failing to break above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). This key technical level continues to act as a formidable resistance, preventing a bullish recovery and leaving the pair under significant selling pressure. Technical indicators reflect the loss of bullish momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows a falling trajectory, staying in negative territory, signaling weakening buying traction. Meanwhile, the…

Market moves:WTI crude oil down $1.20 to $67.10US 10-year yields down 2.9 bps to 4.15%Bitcoin up $2544 to $101,540Gold up $1 to $2633S&P 500 up 0.2%JPY leads, AUD lagsThe theme all week is that it’s been tough to tie market moves to economic news/data and today was no exception. The jobs report was dovish at the margin and that was backed up by Dec cut odds rising to 85% from 70% along with a 5 bps decline in 2-year yields. Initially the dollar slumped, which is what you would expect; USD/JPY fell to 149.50 from 150.50 and EUR/SUD rose to…

High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all your initial investment; do not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. Educate yourself on the risks associated with foreign exchange trading and seek advice from an independent financial or tax advisor if you have any questions. Advisory warning: FOREXLIVE™ is not an investment advisor, FOREXLIVE™ provides references and…

Federal Reserve officials are barred from commenting on monetary policy from midnight Friday until after the December 18 FOMC decision. Given the late date for the final FOMC meeting, it could be quiet for the remainder of the month as the Christmas doldrums will kick-off soon afterwards.There is a risk of some kind of Fed leak next week’s CPI re-shapes the picture but that’s unlikely. Given that the market is now pricing in an 85% chance of a December cut, the FOMC doesn’t need to send any kind of signal if the plan is to cut.Cutting to 4.25-4.50% is hardly…

Morgan Stanley shares a tactically bullish stance on the USD, citing strong US data and trade policy risks. The EUR faces headwinds from weak domestic growth and tariff-related risks, while the GBP benefits from fiscal-driven growth and high rate differentials.Key Points:USD:View: Bullish.Rationale: Strong US data and potential repricing of trade policy risks support continued strength in the USD.Skew: Bullish.EUR:View: Neutral with a bearish skew.Rationale: Weak domestic growth, tariff-related risk premium, and declining rates compared to peers weigh on the EUR.Skew: Bearish.GBP:View: Neutral with a bullish skew.Rationale: Fiscal-driven growth and persistent inflation keep the BoE on a gradual easing path. High…

Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly cautioned markets on Friday, warning that despite data still leaning toward the Fed achieving its infaltion goals, the US central bank will still step in with additional rate hikes if price growth begins to spiral once again. Key highlights The labor market remains in a good position and is balanced. The Fed’s previous framework was aimed to confirm that 2% inflation wasn’t a cap and to underscore that the Fed won’t fight a healthy labor market if inflation is subdued. We are ready to raise rates if inflation breaks out…

WTI crude oil settled lower by $1.10 to $67.20 in the second day of selling following the OPEC+ decision to delay barrels through Q1 and bring them on more-slowly afterwards.Oil is still within the range of the past month but is dangerously close to a test of the 2024 lows.There are signs that OPEC’s discipline is spreading to the US. Yesterday Chevron announced that it would lower 2025 capex by $2 billion this year to a range of $14.5-15.5 billion as it said it would prioritize free cash flow over production growth.US oil production just appear to be close to…

Powell checks the calendar (AI image)This week ahead includes CPI and PPI and with some notable Treasury auctions. The Fed goes into blackout at midnight on Friday so it will be considerably quieter on that front. The FOMC decision is December 18.Here’s a day-by-day preview of next week’s U.S. economic data releases:Monday, December 910:00 AM: Wholesale Inventories (Month-over-Month, October)This low-priority release provides insight into the inventory levels of US wholesale and that goes into GDP estimates but it’s rarely a market mover. The prior reading showed a 0.2% increase.Tuesday, December 108:30 AM: Non-Farm Productivity (Q3)A low-priority release that measures the…

A short position in AUD/USD, initially triggered by weaker-than-expected Australian GDP data, was closed profitably today as the U.S. jobs report showed stable employment conditions. Let’s examine how this theoretical trade played out and what we can learn from the outcome. This Article Is For Premium Members Only Become a Premium member for full website access, plus get: Ad-free experience Daily actionable short-term strategies High-impact economic event trading guides Access to exclusive MarketMilk™ sections Plus More! Source link

CIBC is out with a review of today’s Canadian jobs report:Despite strong headline job numbers, the underlying details were mostly negativeThey cite: Largely public sector job gains, highest unemployment rate since 2016, wage growth lowest since June 2023The weakening labor market, combined with slow GDP growth, indicates growing economic slackPrivate sector employment grew only 1.3% over the past year, less than half the 2.8% labor force growthCIBC writes:The above-consensus headline gain in employment was pretty much the only positive news in today’s data. The greater-than-expected increase in unemployment, weakness in hours worked and deceleration in wage growth all support our…