Author: FX

Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey speaks on the policy outlook and responds to questions from the press following the decision to lower the policy rate by 25 basis points (bps) at the February meeting. Key quotes “Monetary policy cannot prevent short-term influences on headline inflation, nor should monetary policy respond to factors that will fade by the time policy takes effect.” “Short-term pick-up in inflation introduces some further uncertainty into near-term inflation outlook.” “Reasonably confident that pick-up in inflation will be temporary.” “Labour market is cooling.” “Context is of weakening economic activity.” “Evidence suggests firms are reluctant to…

Fundamental OverviewGold continued to print new all-time highs day after day this week as the fall in real yields and later the US dollar gave the precious metal a tailwind to push into new highs. The most recent rise though has been quite parabolic and that’s often followed by a deeper pullback. We have the US NFP report tomorrow and we might see some profit taking ahead of the release. The labour market data throughout January has been strong, so we might get a strong NFP which could weigh on gold in the short term and offer a dip-buying opportunity…

GBP/JPY extends its losses due to rising expectations of the BoE delivering a 25 basis points rate cut on Thursday. The BoE’s MPC is expected to vote 8-1 in favor of a quarter-point rate cut, bringing the rate down to 4.5%. The robust wage and services data in Japan has bolstered hawkish sentiment surrounding the BoJ’s rate hikes. GBP/JPY continues to lose ground for the second consecutive day, trading around 190.40 during the early European hours on Thursday. The GBP/JPY cross struggles as the Pound Sterling (GBP) faces downward pressure amid expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will resume…

European stocks step out from US shadow in 2025, but for how long Source link

Markets are bracing for softer Canadian labor data in January, which could strengthen the case for more rate cuts from the Bank of Canada. So, what are the expectations, and which Loonie pairs tend to react the most? Here’s what you need to know if you’re trading the release! This Article Is For Premium Members Only Become a Premium member for full website access, plus get: Ad-free experience Daily actionable short-term strategies High-impact economic event trading guides Unlimited Access access to MarketMilk™ Plus More! Source link

I posted earlier on Bessent:The key point in his comments was this:focus is on bringing down 10-year Treasury yields, rather than the Fed’s benchmark short-term interest rateOver the weekend Trump said it was ‘fine’ that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) didn’t cut rates last week. Which was a bit of a surprise given his demands and rants that they do so. If the focus really is on the 10-year then perhaps Trump’s ‘fine’ makes sense. Of course, getting the 10 year yield on a downward path implies moves to improve the US fiscal position, as well as inflation. So…

With the Fed shifting to a less dovish stance, will the upcoming U.S. jobs release support their optimistic outlook? Or can the numbers revive easing expectations? Here’s what you need to know if you’re planning on trading the U.S. non-farm payrolls report. This Article Is For Premium Members Only Become a Premium member for full website access, plus get: Ad-free experience Daily actionable short-term strategies High-impact economic event trading guides Unlimited Access access to MarketMilk™ Plus More! Source link

The U.S. ISM services PMI fell from 54.1 to 52.8 in January instead of rising to the projected 54.2 figure, reflecting a slower pace of growth for the month. Components of the report revealed that the employment index remained in expansion for the fourth consecutive month, as it rose 1 percentage point from December’s 51.3 figure to 52.3. Key Takeaways: Business Activity Index came in at 54.5, down 3.5 percentage points from the previous 58 reading New Orders Index recorded a reading of 51.3, 3.1 percentage points lower than the earlier 54.4 figure Employment Index landed at 52.3 percent, marking…

The Japanese Yen strengthens against the USD for the third straight day on Thursday. The divergent BoJ-Fed policy expectations continue to underpin the lower-yielding JPY.  A positive risk tone does little to dent bullish sentiment surrounding the safe-haven JPY. The Japanese Yen (JPY) remains on the front foot against its American counterpart during the Asian session on Thursday amid the growing acceptance that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) would keep raising interest rates. The bets were reaffirmed by better-than-expected Japanese wage data on Wednesday. In contrast, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to lower borrowing costs further by the end…

The major assets shrugged off economic data releases in favor of pricing in global trade headlines, central bank commentary, and overall risk sentiment. Which assets turned lower and which ones gained from yesterday’s headlines? We have the deets! Headlines: On Tuesday night, FOMC Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said “We can maintain policy restraint for longer” if the economy remains strong and inflation doesn’t move sustainably toward 2% BOJ Head of Monetary Affairs Kazuhiro Masaki said the central bank will “continue to raise interest rates” if underlying inflation heads to 2% as projected ANZ: New Zealand commodity prices rose 1.8% m/m…