Author: FX
The market is pricing in just a 20% chance of a large ECB rate cut on December 12 but JPMorgan thinks that’s not enough. They’re out with a new note calling for 50 bps.Today’s prelim eurozone core CPI reading for December was 2.7% compared to 2.8% expected. The headline number creeped up to 2.3% from 2.0% but the ECB’s Villeroy was quick to dismiss it.“We have some good news, inflation has slowed and is going toward our target,” he said in Dijon on Friday. “We will therefore probably be able to continue to lower interest rates.”He added that “in our…
The S&P 500 has extended today’s gain to 30 points, or 0.5%. The Nasdaq Composite is outperforming, up 0.75%.Here is something the bulls will be happy to see. The AAII member survey is down to 37% bullish, which certainly isn’t a red flag around sentiment, especially going into the most-bullish month of the year.What’s difficult about this is that various sentiment survey are all over the place. In terms of stock sectors, chipmakers are leading the way today on a report that the US restrictions on chip exports to China won’t be as strict as feared.SPX daily Source link
The US Dollar off the lows for this Friday with markets nervous on France’s budget talks possibly toppling the government. Monday’s opening might get choppy if French Prime Minister Michel Barnier is unable to secure a deal with the far-right National Rally party. The US Dollar Index is back above 106.00 and is looking for a daily and weekly close above the level to secure more upside into next week. The US Dollar (USD) is recovering with the US trading session opening on Black Friday. The rally in the Euro which was weighing on the US Dollar and the US…
GBP/USD Price Forecast: Clings to daily gains below 1.2700 The Pound Sterling clings to earlier gains yet trades off the weekly highs, which reached around 1.2749 during the European session. At the time of writing, the GBP/USD trades at 1.2684, virtually unchanged. Read More… Pound Sterling gives up gains against USD as 20-day EMA limits upside The Pound Sterling (GBP) surrenders its intraday gains after refreshing a two-week high near 1.2750 against the US Dollar (USD) in Friday’s North American session. The GBP/USD pair falls back as the US Dollar rebounds in a thin volume trading day due to the Thanksgiving holidays. The US Dollar Index (DXY),…
Gold rises on increased haven flows as geopolitical hotspots light up. Israel breaks its ceasefire agreement by attacking Hezbollah, and Putin threatens to use nuclear-capable missiles on Ukraine. XAU/USD is technically crawling up a major trendline but remains vulnerable to breakdowns. Gold (XAU/USD) stages a bigger rebound on Friday and enters the $2,650s during the early US session. A rise in safe-haven flows due to a breakdown in the Israel – Hezbollah ceasefire agreement is one of the catalysts, as is Russian President Vladimir Putin’s warning Russia could launch nuclear-capable missiles at Ukraine. Gold rallies as safe-haven demand increases Gold…
The Mexican Peso has paused after rallying on easing fears about tariffs from the US and a trade war. The Mexican Trade Surplus grew in October and the economy is growing at a higher pace than expected. Technically, USD/MXN unfolds a down leg within its range. The Mexican Peso (MXN) fluctuates between tepid gains and losses in its most-traded pairs on Friday as it stabilizes after the previous day’s rally. This came on the back of easing tariff fears after President-elect Donald Trump described his phone call with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum as “wonderful”, adding, “She has agreed to stop migration…
Fundamental OverviewThe Nasdaq is slowly crawling back to the all-time high. The market continues to look forward to the next year with Trump’s policies being a positive driver for growth. The only bearish reason we had for the stock market was the rise in Treasury yields. That’s generally bearish only when the Fed is tightening policy though not when yields rise on positive growth expectations. Right now, the Fed’s reaction function is that a strong economy would warrant an earlier pause in the easing cycle and not a tightening. That should still be supportive for the stock market in the…
USD/CAD finds an interim cushion near 1.3980, investors await Canadian monthly and Q3 GDP data. The Canadian economy is estimated to have grown by 1% compared to same quarter of the precious year, slower than Q2 growth of 2.1%. The US Dollar could rebound, given its strong fundamental outlook. The USD/CAD pair discovers some support near 1.3980 in Friday’s European session. The Loonie pair gauges cushion as the US Dollar (USD) rebounds after posting a fresh two-week low, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) getting some buying interest near 105.60. The Greenback faces an intense sell-off this week after rallying…
Strategy: Flip 55 The Flip 55 is a trend-following strategy. This straight forward approach utilizes 2 moving averages has undergone extensive backtesting by our team, demonstrating a winning ratio between 70% and 80%. Recommended Timeframe This strategy is adaptable to various timeframes, including H1, H4, and Daily. Although it can be applied to timeframes lower than H1, optimal results are typically achieved within the H1, H4, and Daily timeframes. Trade Details Currently, the Flip 55 strategy has identified a trading opportunity on the AUD/CAD pair within the H4 timeframe. I’ve shared a trade setup image for…
Bitcoin’s journey to $100,000 is hitting a snag as an area of interest limits bullish demand. Here’s a level you can watch if you’re waiting for bitcoin to moon (some more): Bitcoin (BTC/USD) 4-hour Chart by TradingView In case you missed it, a rejection from just under the big $100,000 level dragged BTC/USD back to $92,000 before the HODLers HODLed harder and pushed the pair back up to its current $97,500 area. Unfortunately for BTC bulls, not even end-of-month flows and uncertainty over the Fed’s next interest rate cuts have been able to push BTC/USD back to its record highsBTC/USD…