Author: FX
Why it’s important?The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on the upper bound of the range, so even if the data comes out inside the range of estimates but on the lower bound of the range, it can still create a surprise effect.Distribution of forecasts for CPICPI Y/Y 3.0% (2%)2.9% (59%) – consensus2.8% (27%)2.7% (8%) 2.6%…
GBP/JPY loses ground as the Pound Sterling loses ground after the weaker UK inflation data released on Wednesday. The UK Consumer Price Index increased by 2.5% YoY in December, staying above the BoE’s 2% target. The Japanese Yen rises due to hawkish remarks from BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda. GBP/JPY has surrendered its recent gains from the previous session, trading around 192.00 during early European hours on Wednesday. The GBP/JPY cross depreciates as the Pound Sterling (GBP) weakens following weaker-than-expected inflation data from the United Kingdom (UK). The UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 2.5% year-over-year in December, down from…
The British pound has been struggling against the Canadian dollar, dropping from its 2024 highs to a multi-month support zone. Lately, though, GBP/CAD has calmed down from its steep declines. Could this signal a longer-term bounce? We’re taking a closer look at the 4-hour chart for clues: GBP/CAD 4-hour Forex Chart by TradingView Sterling has been under pressure since late December, weighed down by concerns over the U.K.’s fiscal conditions and the Bank of England’s dovish pivot. On the flip side, the Canadian dollar is riding high, supported by a bounce in crude oil prices and start-of-year optimism. It’s even…
By Lisa Baertlein and Ellen Zhang LOS ANGELES/BEIJING (Reuters) – U.S. imports from China finished the year strong after some companies stockpiled shipments of apparel, toys, furniture and electronics ahead of President-elect Donald Trump’s plan to impose new tariffs that could revive a trade war between the world’s economic superpowers. Trump, who has threatened to slap tariffs of 10% to 60% on goods from China, takes office on Jan. 20. During his first term, Trump mainly targeted Chinese parts and components. Economists and trade experts predict his next wave of tariffs could apply to finished goods. “There has thus been…
All eyes are on the U.S. December inflation report, which could reshape traders’ interest rate expectations ahead of the Fed’s next meeting. Our Event Guide for the U.S. December CPI highlights that leading indicators, such as business surveys, suggest persistent price pressures. Even the latest PPI report, while slightly lower for the month, still points to sticky high inflation. If inflation remains elevated, expectations of higher-for-longer rates could keep the USD supported against major currencies like the CHF and AUD. This Article Is For Premium Members Only Become a Premium member for full website access, plus get: Ad-free…
Dollar traders seem to be biting their nails ahead of the U.S. CPI release, as a huge miss could revive aggressive Fed rate cut expectations. Our Event Guide for the U.S. CPI Report points out that the PPI data already fell short of market estimates, potentially weighing on overall consumer inflation. Will we see a breakdown on USD/CAD and USD/JPY if this happens? This Article Is For Premium Members Only Become a Premium member for full website access, plus get: Ad-free experience Daily actionable short-term strategies High-impact economic event trading guides Access to exclusive MarketMilk™ sections Plus…
With Fed interest rate expectations still being a major theme for financial markets these days, what will the upcoming U.S. CPI release imply for policy biases? How will the dollar react and how will the numbers impact overall market sentiment? Here’s what to look out for in the December inflation report. This Article Is For Premium Members Only Become a Premium member for full website access, plus get: Ad-free experience Daily actionable short-term strategies High-impact economic event trading guides Access to exclusive MarketMilk™ sections Plus More! Source link
With the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) already shifting towards a more cautious stance, can weaker hiring growth make policymakers even more dovish? Or will labor market resilience prevail? Here are the points you need to know when trading the upcoming Australian employment report. This Article Is For Premium Members Only Become a Premium member for full website access, plus get: Ad-free experience Daily actionable short-term strategies High-impact economic event trading guides Access to exclusive MarketMilk™ sections Plus More! Source link
Later today, Wednesday, 15 December, we get the US consumer inflation data for November 2024 due at 1330 GMT which is 0830 US Eastern timeEarlier posts:The PPI was out on Tuesday:This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here.Taking a look at the range of expectations compared to the median consensus (the ‘expected’ in the screenshot above) for the key data points:CPI Headline y/y range of estimates:CPI Headline m/m:CPI excluding food and energy (the core rate of inflation) y/y:CPI excluding food and energy (the core rate of inflation) m/m expected 0.3% with the range showing:***Why is knowledge of…
NZD/USD trades with mild gains around 0.5600 in Wednesday’s Asian session. US PPI came in softer than expected last month. Expectations that Trump will impose graduated tariffs increasing by about 2% to 5% a month might help limit the pair’s losses. The NZD/USD pair posts modest gains to near 0.5600 on Wednesday during the Asian trading hours. The cooler-than-expected US December Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation data drags the US Dollar (USD) lower and creates a tailwind for the pair. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the USD against a basket of currencies, weakens to around 109.20 after…