Author: FX
The classic tweet from Dec 2018The fear in markets is that Trump is going to be hitting everyone with tariffs. He’s a very tough guy to predict but I’m growing more optimistic.1) The threats to Mexico and Canada are solvableOne of his first post-election tweets talked about 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada but the important detail was he wanted action on fentanyl and border security. That’s an easy deal to make and Trump already highlighted improvement from Mexico.2) EuropeThe FT today reports that Trump wants NATO countries to spend 5% of GDP on defense. That’s some real war-time spending…
According to Punchbowl News:Republican leadership has proposed a plan addressing the debt limit.The proposal includes raising the debt limit by $1.5 trillion in the first reconciliation package.It also promises to cut $2.5 trillion in net mandatory spending through the reconciliation process.Statements from Key Figures:House Majority Leader Steve Scalise: if not today, they will act tomorrowHouse Speaker Mike Johnson:Johnson has reportedly discussed a new funding plan with the President electronically, though details remain unclear.The White House’s Response:The White House has urged Republicans to adhere to the existing bipartisan deal to keep the government open.Officials stress that there is still time to…
The USDCHF fell below its 100 hour moving average, swing area and upward sloping trendline near 0.8956. That tilted the short-term bias to the downside. That momentum continued to the next key target area defined by the rising 200 hour moving average (green line on the chart above) and a swing area between 0.8914 and 0.8923. The low price just reached 0.8915, and has bounced modestly. The current price trades at 0.8922.The sport target has held. Buyers leaned. That level can continue to hold, rotation back toward the 100 hour moving average is a possibility at 0.8956.Conversely, if the swing…
The EURUSD is stretching higher and it has now broken back above the November 26 swing low at 1.0442 and is testing its falling 100-hour moving average at 1.0443 (blue line on the chart above). Just above that is a swing area between 1.0448 and 1.0461 and the falling 200-hour moving average at 1.04719 (green line on the chart above). Recall that the 200 hour moving average was a strong resistance area going back to December 10. Just prior to moving lower on Decemeber 17, the price tried to extend above the 200 hour MA (see green number circle 7)…
The GBP/USD pair rebounded towards 1.2540 after the release of US inflation data and the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy decision on Thursday. While the pair benefited from softer-than-expected US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) data, the BoE’s cautious stance on rate cuts and weaker UK Retail Sales data kept gains in check. Read More… The Pound Sterling (GBP) recovers sharply in North American trading hours after posting a fresh seven-month low near 1.2470 against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday. The GBP/USD pair bounces back as the US Dollar declines after the release of the United States (US) Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) report for November, which showed…
EUR/USD gains on Friday, settling near 1.0395 after Wednesday’s steep decline. RSI rises sharply to 37, remaining in negative territory and reflecting hesitant recovery attempts. MACD histogram prints flat red bars, indicating persistent bearish pressure albeit with signs of stabilization. After suffering a sharp drop of more than 1% on Wednesday, the EUR/USD managed a minor rebound by the end of the week, adding 0.28% to trade near 1.0395 on Friday. Despite this modest improvement, the pair remains below the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which continues to limit upside potential and maintain a cautious outlook. Technical indicators suggest that…
S&P 500 did not see convincing buying following the opening bell in the least – no surprise to clients, I had been bearish ever since the intraday update issued for them during Powell conference latter minutes. Source link
The US Dollar is residing not far from its fresh two-year high level seen in Asian trading on Friday Quadruple Witching – the simultaneous expiration of four types of derivative contracts – is set to take place in the US trading session. The US Dollar Index (DXY) reached 108.55 and looks set to end the year on a rather elevated level. The US Dollar (USD) is residing not far from its fresh two-year high of 108.55 that was hit during the Asian-Pacific trading session. The move was supported by rising US Treasury yields, widening the rate-differential gap with other countries. This…
US PCE data showed softer inflation, reducing Fed’s urgency for aggressive rate hikes. BoE held rates at 4.75%, with divisions on potential rate cuts in 2025. UK Retail Sales missed expectations, with weak demand in clothing. The GBP/USD pair rebounded towards 1.2540 after the release of US inflation data and the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy decision on Thursday. While the pair benefited from softer-than-expected US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) data, the BoE’s cautious stance on rate cuts and weaker UK Retail Sales data kept gains in check. The US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) data for November revealed softer…
In an interview with CNBC on Friday, Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said that they are still on a path to get to 2% inflation, adding that it was ‘nice’ to get an inflation number that’s better than expected. Key takeaways “There’s more uncertainty, noise.” “My projections were for a little more shallow rate-path in 2025.” “Next 12- to 18- months, rates can go down a fair amount.” “Employment is stable, want to keep it stable, to do so rates need to come down to something like neutral.” “I agree policy rate is meaningful restrictive.” “I agree…