Fundamental
Overview
Much like the stock market,
Bitcoin found support this week from the dovish comments from Fed members. Fed’s
Williams was the first opening the door for a cut in September which marked the
bottom in many risk assets.
That was followed by Fed’s
Daly and Fed’s Kashkari who cited the NFP report and revisions as a reason to
start thinking about cuts. Yesterday, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies rallied
on the news
that Trump was going to sign an executive order allowing cryptocurrencies and
other alternative assets in retirement plans.
Looking ahead, the focus
has now turned to the US CPI report coming up next week. Lower than expected
data should seal the expectations for a rate cut in September and Fed Chair Powell
will likely signal that at the Jackson Hole Symposium. On the other hand,
higher than expected figures might trigger a hawkish repricing and weigh on
risk assets keeping us in rangebound mode.
Bitcoin
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
Bitcoin Daily
On the daily chart, we can
see that Bitcoin eventually bounced from the major trendline around the 112,000 level and
extended the gains into the downward trendline. This is where we can expect the
sellers to step in with a defined risk above the trendline to position for a
drop back into the major upward trendline. The buyers, on the other hand, will
look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into a new all-time high.
Bitcoin Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
Bitcoin 4 hour
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a strong zone around the 116,000 level where the price got
rejected from several times in the past weeks. If we get a pullback from the trendline,
we can expect the buyers to step in there with a defined risk below the zone to
position for a break above the downward trendline. The sellers, on the other
hand, will look for a break lower to increase the bearish bets into the major upward
trendline.
Bitcoin Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
Bitcoin 1 hour
On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have another minor upward trendline defining the bullish momentum
on this timeframe. The buyers will likely continue to lean on it to keep
pushing into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower to target
a pullback into the major trendline. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
