AUD/USD has pulled back to a verrrry interesting chart level!
Will this retracement draw in enough buyers to extend the pair’s longer-term trend?
Here’s what’s up on the 4-hour time frame:
AUD/USD 4-hour Forex Chart by TradingView
AUD/USD had been grinding higher since April as trade war fears faded and the Greenback lost some shine. But that momentum hit a speed bump this week with renewed dollar demand knocking the Aussie lower.
Traders are keeping close tabs on the U.S.-China trade talks and any dovish vibes from the Fed. If risk appetite picks up, commodity currencies like the Aussie could catch a second wind, especially against safe havens like the dollar.
Remember that directional biases and volatility conditions in market price are typically driven by fundamentals. If you haven’t yet done your fundie homework on the Australian dollar and the U.S. dollar, then it’s time to check out the economic calendar and stay updated on daily fundamental news!
AUD/USD recently hit resistance near .6625 and is now trading closer to the .6500 psychological handle.
As you can see, the area lines up with the S1 Pivot Point, the 61.8% Fib retracement of July’s upswing, and the bottom of the ascending channel that’s been in play since mid-April.
Are we looking at an opportunity to jump on AUD/USD’s uptrend?
If AUD/USD holds above .6500 and bullish candles start showing up, the pair could make another push toward .6600, maybe even reach .6650 or the R1 Pivot Point near .6670.
But if price stays below the 100 and 200 SMAs and breaks under .6500, that could signal the end of the uptrend that started in April. From there, traders might start targeting .6450 and .6400 as the next areas of interest.
Whichever bias you end up trading, don’t forget to practice proper risk management and stay aware of top-tier catalysts that could influence overall market sentiment.
Disclaimer:
Please be aware that the technical analysis content provided herein is for informational and educational purposes only. It should not be construed as trading advice or a suggestion of any specific directional bias. Technical analysis is just one aspect of a comprehensive trading strategy. The technical setups discussed are intended to highlight potential areas of interest that other traders may be observing. Ultimately, all trading decisions, risk management strategies, and their resulting outcomes are the sole responsibility of each individual trader. Please trade responsibly.
