FUNDAMENTAL
OVERVIEW
Oil prices rose back to the
weekly highs after Trump disappointed the market in today’s speech. Earlier in the
week, crude oil came under pressure after Trump basically confirmed the WSJ report in a Truth Social post that he would be open to end the
war with Iran without the Strait of Hormuz opening condition. Later that day we
also had Iranian President saying that they were ready to end the war but wanted
guarantees.
It looks like the market
wrongly ignored yesterday’s news though. In fact, Trump posted this on his
Truth Social:
“Iran’s New Regime
President, much less Radicalized and far more intelligent than his
predecessors, has just asked the United States of America for a CEASEFIRE! We
will consider when Hormuz Strait is open, free, and clear. Until then, we are
blasting Iran into oblivion or, as they say, back to the Stone Ages!!!
President DJT”
Trump self-imposed a 5-day
ceasefire last week, then extended it by another 10 days (set to expire on
April 6). At the same time, he made it clear that any ceasefire would depend on
reopening the Strait, despite having downplayed that condition just a day
earlier. He also ended his message with the usual threats.
Moreover, the White House
indicated ahead of the speech that Trump would reiterate a 2–3 week timeline
for ending the war. That stretches well beyond the current ceasefire window,
leaving plenty of room for tensions to escalate again. This should keep oil
prices supported (all else being equal).
CRUDE OIL
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME
WTI crude oil – daily
On the daily chart, we can
see that crude oil recovered the losses and it’s now trading near the weekly
highs. If the price pulls all the way back to the 93.00 zone, we can expect the
buyers to step in with a defined risk below the zone to position for a rally
into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break to pile
in for a drop into the 78.00 support next.
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL
ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME
crude oil – 4 hour
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see the price bounced on the minor trendline. The natural target should be the
upper bound of the potential rising channel. If we get another pullback, we can
expect the buyers to continue to lean on the trendline to keep pushing into new
highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower to pile in for a drop into
the lower bound of the channel.
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL
ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME
crude oil – 1 hour
On the 1 hour chart, we can
see the buyers increased the bullish bets into new highs after the break above
the downward trendline. Again, if we get a pullback into the upward trendline we
can expect the buyers to step back in around the 100.00 support. We can also notice that the price is currently trading at the upper bound of the average daily range for today. In such instances, we can generally see a pullback or some consolidation before the next move.
UPCOMING CATALYSTS
Today we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. Tomorrow, we conclude
the week with the US NFP report.
