Markets got back on their feet after last Friday’s post-NFP chaos, as U.S. equity indices rebounded to positive territory while the focus shifted to the possibility of lower borrowing costs.
Still, global trade jitters lingered as Trump announced plans to raise tariffs on India, keeping gold supported by safe-haven flows.
Here are headlines you may have missed in the last trading sessions!
Headlines:
- Over the weekend, OPEC+ confirmed it would raise oil output by 548K barrels per day in September
- Over the weekend, Fed official Williams expressed openness to a September rate cut
- On Sunday, Trump confirmed that special envoy Steve Witkoff will travel to Russia next week amid rising geopolitical tensions
- Japan’s chief trade negotiator Ryosei Akazawa said that the U.S.-Japan trade deal was not a legally binding agreement
- Japanese Nikkei chalked up its steepest fall in four months as bond yields slumped ahead of 10-year JGB auction
- Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge MoM for July 2025: 0.9% (0.2% forecast; 0.1% previous)
- Swiss Inflation Rate MoM for July 2025: 0.0% (-0.1% forecast; 0.2% previous); Swiss Inflation Rate YoY for July 2025: 0.2% (0.1% forecast; 0.1% previous)
- Swiss procure.ch Manufacturing PMI for July 2025: 48.8 (50.0 forecast; 49.6 previous)
- Swiss government reassured that they are not considering countermeasures against U.S. despite latest tariffs hike
- U.S. Total Vehicle Sales for July 2025: 16.4M (15.9M forecast; 15.3M previous)
- U.S. Factory Orders MoM for June 2025: -4.8% (-6.0% forecast; 8.2% previous); U.S. Factory Orders ex Transportation for June 2025: 0.4% (0.1% forecast; 0.2% previous)
- Trump announced plans to raise tariffs on India as a result of the country buying big amounts of oil from Russia
- U.S. CFTC launched initiative to allow trading of spot crypto asset contracts on CFTC-registered futures exchanges
- Fed official Daly suggested that two interest rate cuts for the year seems appropriate
- Australia S&P Global Services PMI Final for July 2025: 54.1 (53.8 forecast; 51.8 previous)
- Australia S&P Global Composite PMI Final for July 2025: 53.8 (53.6 forecast; 51.6 previous)
- BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes confirmed plans to keep tightening policy if prices move in line with forecasts
Broad Market Price Action:
Dollar Index, Gold, S&P 500, Oil, U.S. 10-yr Yield, Bitcoin Overlay Chart by TradingView
A bit of calm after last Friday’s storm greeted market participants on Monday, with risk assets pulling gradually higher during the Asian trading session thanks to weekend developments.
WTI crude oil initially gapped down on the OPEC+ confirmation that they will be increasing oil output by 548K barrels per day in September as expected, as well as Trump’s confirmation that a special envoy will be going to Russia to address rising geopolitical tensions.
Gold found itself in negative territory early in the day, as some risk-on flows returned when the market focus shifted to stronger odds of Fed easing in reaction to the downbeat NFP report. However, the safe-haven precious metal gradually climbed back in the black as the day went on, and traders got wind of Trump’s tariffs threat on India due to the country’s purchases of Russian oil.
Still, U.S. equity indices chalked up a notable rebound after Friday’s selloff as the prospect of lower U.S. borrowing costs likely spurred expectations of stronger spending and investment down the line.
Bitcoin also managed a recovery thanks to the CFTC launching an initiative to allow trading of spot crypto asset contracts on registered exchanges.
FX Market Behavior: U.S. Dollar vs. Majors:
Overlay of USD vs. Majors Chart by TradingView
The Greenback spent the early Asian session in positive territory, possibly reflecting profit-taking from its post-NFP tumble, although some gains were soon erased as risk appetite picked up on the possibility of a September Fed rate cut.
Over the weekend, Fed official Williams mentioned that he’d have “very much an open mind” about easing in the next FOMC meeting, especially if the labor market doesn’t appear to be getting stronger. USD/JPY popped higher a few hours into the session, as Japanese bond yields and the Nikkei slumped ahead of the 10-year JGB auction.
USD/CHF also moved higher during the early London session, following a flat Swiss CPI print and a decline in the Swiss manufacturing PMI from 49.6 to 48.8 instead of the expected improvement to 49.8. The euro also found itself on the back foot when the Sentix investor confidence index fell in the red to -3.7 instead of improving from 4.5 to 6.2.
The dollar resumed its downward trajectory leading up to the New York session, before chalking up some gains as the U.S. factory orders report came in closely in line with estimates. USD held its ground against most of its peers, except safe-haven rival JPY and oil-related CAD, as some trade jitters returned when Trump threatened higher tariffs on India for purchasing massive amounts of Russian oil.
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar
- France Industrial Production at 6:45 am GMT
- France HCOB Services PMI Final at 7:50 am GMT
- France HCOB Composite PMI Final at 7:50 am GMT
- Germany HCOB Services PMI Final at 7:55 am GMT
- Germany HCOB Composite PMI Final at 7:55 am GMT
- Euro area HCOB Composite PMI Final at 8:00 am GMT
- Euro area HCOB Services PMI Final at 8:00 am GMT
- U.K. New Car Sales YoY at 8:00 am GMT
- U.K. S&P Global Services PMI Final at 8:30 am GMT
- U.K. S&P Global Composite PMI Final at 8:30 am GMT
- Euro area PPI at 9:00 am GMT
- New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Auction coming up
- Canada Balance of Trade at 12:30 pm GMT
- U.S. Balance of Trade at 12:30 pm GMT
- U.S. S&P Global Services PMI Final at 1:45 pm GMT
- U.S. S&P Global Composite PMI Final at 1:45 pm GMT
- U.S. ISM Services PMI at 2:00 pm GMT
- U.S. RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index at 2:10 pm GMT
- U.S. API Crude Oil Stock Change at 8:30 pm GMT
- New Zealand Employment Change at 10:45 pm GMT
There’s not much in the way of top-tier data points lined up during the Asian and London sessions, save for eurozone PPI figures, so currency market volatility might have to wait until the release of trade balance reports from Canada and the U.S. during New York market hours.
The ISM services PMI could also be worth a look, although the dollar’s reaction could be muted since the NFP numbers were already released last Friday. After that, we’ve got potential fireworks for NZD pairs since New Zealand’s quarterly jobs report is due next.
As always, stay nimble and don’t forget to check out our Forex Correlation Calculator when taking any trades!
