The major assets were mixed and the U.S. dollar surged to its strongest daily performance on Wednesday as traders navigated a complex session shaped by the absence of crucial labor data, hawkish-leaning Fed minutes, and escalating China-Japan tensions.
Check out the forex news and economic updates you may have missed in the latest trading session!
Forex News Headlines & Data:
- China escalated retaliation against Japan, suspending seafood imports and halting film approvals after PM Takaichi’s Taiwan remarks
- New Zealand PPI Input for September 30, 2025: 0.2% q/q (0.8% q/q forecast; 0.6% q/q previous)
- New Zealand PPI Output for September 30, 2025: 0.6% q/q (0.9% q/q forecast; 0.6% q/q previous)
- Japan Machinery Orders for September 2025: 4.2% m/m (0.5% m/m forecast; -0.9% m/m previous); 11.6% y/y (1.9% y/y forecast; 1.6% y/y previous)
- Australia Wage Price Index for September 30, 2025: 3.4% y/y (3.2% y/y forecast; 3.4% y/y previous); 0.8% q/q (0.6% q/q forecast; 0.8% q/q previous)
- U.K. Consumer Price Index Growth Rate for October 2025: 3.6% y/y (3.7% y/y forecast; 3.8% y/y previous); 0.4% m/m (0.5% m/m forecast; 0.0% m/m previous)
- Euro area Consumer Price Index Growth Rate Final for October 2025: 0.2% m/m (0.2% m/m forecast; 0.1% m/m previous); 2.1% y/y (2.1% y/y forecast; 2.2% y/y previous)
- Euro area Labor Cost Index Flash for September 30, 2025: 3.5% y/y (3.2% y/y forecast; 3.6% y/y previous)
- U.S. MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate for November 14, 2025: 6.37% (6.34% previous)
- U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications for November 14, 2025: -5.2% (0.6% previous)
- U.S. Balance of Trade for August 2025: -59.6B (-63.0B forecast; -78.3B previous)
- U.S. EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change for November 14, 2025: -3.43M (6.41M previous)
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced on Wednesday that it will not publish an October employment report; will roll that data into the November report
- The FOMC meeting minutes: revealed deep divisions among policymakers, with most officials favoring to keep interest rates unchanged for the rest of the year, although a minority still support further cuts amid rising concerns about employment risks and stalled progress on inflation
Broad Market Price Action:
Dollar Index, Gold, S&P 500, Oil, U.S. 10-yr Yield, Bitcoin Overlay Chart by TradingView
Wednesday’s session delivered mixed performances across the major asset classes, with the dollar and Treasury yields climbing while Bitcoin suffered steep losses and oil retreated on inventory concerns.
The S&P 500 traded choppy and mostly sideways throughout the session, ultimately closing up 0.46% near 6,640 despite the uncertainty surrounding missing labor data. The index caught a bid ahead of Nvidia’s highly anticipated earnings report, with the chipmaker surging 3% and helping technology shares stabilize. The modest equity gains came despite traders dramatically scaling back December Fed rate cut expectations, suggesting markets may be finding support in strong corporate fundamentals and AI-related optimism.
Gold finished modestly higher, up 0.16% around $4,074, trading relatively flat after a London session bounce then U.S. pullback. The precious metal may have support from ongoing geopolitical tensions between China and Japan, though the dollar’s broad strength and reduced rate cut expectations likely capped gains. There were no direct gold-specific catalysts to point to, so it’s possible that the metal’s resilience reflected continued safe-haven demand amid elevated policy uncertainty.
WTI crude oil declined 1.77% to close near $59.30, with the sell-off starting in the Asia session, but really gaining steam during the morning London session. Strong arguments can be made that this is a reaction to speculation of a U.S. proposal in the works to end the Russia-Ukraine war. The down move bottomed out just ahead of the EIA crude oil inventories report, which showed a drawdown of 3.43 million barrels vs. an expected build, preceding a slight rebound in oil prices ahead of the daily close.
Bitcoin suffered the session’s steepest losses, plunging 3.19% to finish below $89,500. The cryptocurrency showed weakness throughout the entire session, beginning its descent during Asian trading hours and accelerating lower through the U.S. session. There were no direct Bitcoin-specific news to point to, so it’s possible that continued crypto deleveraging, combined with reduced Fed easing expectations and a stronger dollar weighed on the digital asset.
The 10-year Treasury yield climbed 0.34% to 4.10%, trading choppy for most of the day before eventually closing higher. An argument for the net bullish lean can be made that the BLS jobs report cancellation reduced the likelihood of a December Fed rate cut. The yield’s most notable intraday advance followed the release of the FOMC minutes, which revealed that “many” officials favored keeping rates unchanged for the remainder of 2025.
FX Market Behavior: U.S. Dollar vs. Majors:
Overlay of USD vs. Majors Forex Chart by TradingView
The U.S. dollar posted net gains across all trading sessions on Wednesday, ultimately closing as the best performing currency among the majors as the cancellation of the October jobs report and hawkish Fed minutes supported falling rate cut expectations.
During the Asian session, the dollar traded net positive against major currencies, with particularly strong gains against the New Zealand dollar correlating with weaker-than-expected New Zealand PPI data. Australia’s in-line Wage Price Index reading at 3.4% y/y provided some support for the Australian dollar initially, though the greenback still managed modest gains against the Aussie. The dollar’s Asian session strength possibly reflected defensive positioning ahead of key U.S. data releases and the FOMC minutes.
The dollar’s momentum continued through the London session, with the greenback trading net higher against all major currencies. The U.K. inflation data came in slightly below expectations (3.6% y/y versus 3.7% forecast), which initially pressured sterling, though the move proved modest as the headline decline was marginal. Euro area final CPI readings confirmed the preliminary 2.1% y/y print, offering no surprises to drive significant euro movement. The dollar’s London session gains seemed to outweigh the modest dovish tilt from U.K. data, suggesting traders were still positioning ahead of U.S. releases.
The U.S. session delivered the dollar’s strongest performance of the day, with the greenback surging broadly after the U.S. session open, with no apparent catalyst other than a net positive U.S. trade balance report. We don’t think that was the catalyst as the market continued to trade muted surrounding the release, so it’s possible traders continued to anticipate a net hawkish FOMC meeting minutes report.
We eventually got there with the FOMC meeting minutes showing most members favored no cuts in December, but we also got news from the BLS that it will not publish an October employment report, rolling that data into the November report instead. These developments seemed to keep the Greenback bid in the afternoon U.S. session, solidifying the USD’s outperformance against the major currencies at the Wednesday close.
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar
- RBA Connolly Speech at 11:55 pm GMT
- China Loan Prime Rate for November 20, 2025 at 1:15 am GMT
- BoJ Koeda Speech at 1:30 am GMT
- RBA Hunter Speech at 2:00 am GMT
- Swiss Balance of Trade for October 2025 at 7:00 am GMT
- Germany PPI for October 2025 at 7:00 am GMT
- U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Orders for November 2025 at 11:00 am GMT
- Canada CFIB Business Barometer for November 2025 at 12:00 pm GMT
- Canada PPI for October 2025 at 1:30 pm GMT
- U.S. Employment Update for September 2025 at 1:30 pm GMT
- Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for November 2025 at 1:30 pm GMT
- Fed Hammack Speech at 1:45 pm GMT
- Euro area Consumer Confidence Flash for November 2025 at 3:00 pm GMT
- U.S. CB Leading Index for September 2025 at 3:00 pm GMT
- U.S. Existing Home Sales for October 2025 at 3:00 pm GMT
- Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index for November 2025 at 4:00 pm GMT
- Fed Cook Speech at 4:00 pm GMT
- Fed Goolsbee Speech at 6:40 pm GMT
Thursday’s calendar features the return of U.S. employment data, though these September figures are unlikely to drive significant market moves given they’re dated. The Philadelphia and Kansas City Fed manufacturing surveys could provide updated perspectives on regional economic conditions, particularly important given the limited availability of national data due to the government shutdown.
Fresh developments on the China-Japan diplomatic front remain a key watch item following Wednesday’s escalation of trade restrictions and travel warnings. Markets will be sensitive to any signs of de-escalation or further retaliation, particularly regarding potential rare earth supply disruptions that Japanese industry has flagged as a concern.
Multiple Federal Reserve speakers—including Hammack, Cook, and Goolsbee—will face questions about the path forward given the missing October employment data and the divided FOMC revealed in Wednesday’s minutes. Their commentary could provide insight into whether policymakers view the data gap as warranting caution (favoring a hold) or whether other indicators suffice to guide December’s decision.
Stay frosty out there, forex friends, and don’t forget to check out our Forex Correlation Calculator when planning to take on risk!
