The FX market offered an early indication of a strong risk-off move in early trading this week and the futures market paints that much more clearly.
The S&P 500 fell 1.3% on Friday and futures are down another 1.4% at the open. Gold initially rallied at the open but is now down $25 in a very quick move.
The big story is going to be oil as US futures are up $10 and trading above $100 on the April contract. That continues the breathtaking move since the war started.
On the weekend, Iraq alone indicated it had trimmed production by 3 million barrels per day. That’s the entire global global surplus and doesn’t even account for the other producers that will have to curtail. An estimated 20% of global production flows through the Strait of Hormuz and it’s not flowing at the moment in any meaningful volumes.
Notably, the bond market isn’t showing the usual risk off trajectory as the inflationary inpulse from oil is overwhelming it. Ten-year Treasury note futures are down 10 ticks and 30s are down 19 ticks.
Update: WTI up $16.80 to $107.70.
Retail gasoline is headed for $4/gallon.
This alone is a roughly 0.3–0.5 pp to year-over-year headline CPI. Add in diesel, airfares, food prices, petrochemicals and plastics, utilities and it’s an instant problem for the Federal Reserve and other global central banks.
The oil chart itself is breathtaking, nearly doubling from early February levels.
WTI crude oil chart
Zooming out, we are suddenly within striking range of the highs from the Russian invasion of Ukraine, though at an even-faster pace.
WTI daily
