Australia’s Trade Surplus widened to 4,385M MoM in October versus 4,200M expected and 3,938M in the previous reading, according to the latest foreign trade data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday.
More to come…
This section was published on December 4 at 23.10 GMT as a preview of the Australian Trade Data release.
The Australian Trade Data Overview
The Australian Bureau of Statistics will publish its data for August on Thursday at 00.30 GMT. Trade surplus is expected to widen to 4,200M MoM in October, compared to 3,938M in the previous reading.
Trade Balance gives an early indication of the net export performance. If a steady demand in exchange for Australian exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the AUD.
How could the Australian Trade Data affect AUD/USD?
AUD/USD trades on a positive note on the day in the lead up to the Australian Trade Data. The pair gathers strength as the US Dollar softens amid weaker than expected US jobs data and expectations of further US rate cuts.
If data comes in better than expected, it could lift the Australian Dollar (AUD), with the first upside barrier seen at the October 6 high of 0.6620. The next resistance level emerges at the September 11 high of 0.6665, en route to the September 17 high of 0.6707.
To the downside, the December 1 low of 0.6532 will offer some comfort to buyers. Extended losses could see a drop to the 100-day EMA at 0.6514. The next contention level is located at the October 10 low of 0.6472.
RBA FAQs
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for Australia. Decisions are made by a board of governors at 11 meetings a year and ad hoc emergency meetings as required. The RBA’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means an inflation rate of 2-3%, but also “..to contribute to the stability of the currency, full employment, and the economic prosperity and welfare of the Australian people.” Its main tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will strengthen the Australian Dollar (AUD) and vice versa. Other RBA tools include quantitative easing and tightening.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for currencies since it lowers the value of money in general, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Moderately higher inflation now tends to lead central banks to put up their interest rates, which in turn has the effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in the case of Australia is the Aussie Dollar.
Macroeconomic data gauges the health of an economy and can have an impact on the value of its currency. Investors prefer to invest their capital in economies that are safe and growing rather than precarious and shrinking. Greater capital inflows increase the aggregate demand and value of the domestic currency. Classic indicators, such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can influence AUD. A strong economy may encourage the Reserve Bank of Australia to put up interest rates, also supporting AUD.
Quantitative Easing (QE) is a tool used in extreme situations when lowering interest rates is not enough to restore the flow of credit in the economy. QE is the process by which the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) prints Australian Dollars (AUD) for the purpose of buying assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from financial institutions, thereby providing them with much-needed liquidity. QE usually results in a weaker AUD.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the RBA stops buying more assets, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It would be positive (or bullish) for the Australian Dollar.
