The AUDUSD has been stepping lower since the FOMC decision last Wednesday, when the pair initially broke below its 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages at 0.7060 and 0.7046, respectively.
The downside momentum intensified on Monday, leading to a break below a key channel trendline. Yesterday, the pair retested the underside of that broken trendline during the Asian session, where willing sellers stepped in and pushed the pair to another leg lower. The price ultimately reached a low of 0.68816 before staging a modest rebound.
Today’s price action has been volatile, with the pair trading in both directions. Importantly, the session low has remained above yesterday’s low, offering buyers a small positive. However, in the current hourly bar, the price pushed to a new session high only to run into sellers once again near the underside of the broken trendline at 0.6915. The high reached 0.6914 before the pair rotated back lower and currently trades near 0.6905.
From a technical perspective:
- 0.6915: The underside of the broken channel trendline and the first hurdle for buyers.
- 0.6947: The falling 100-hour moving average and the next key upside target.
If buyers are going to regain control, they need to break and hold above the 0.6915 trendline resistance and then push through the falling 100-hour moving average at 0.6947.
Until that happens, the sellers remain in control of the short-term trend. Watch the 0.6915 level for early signs of renewed buying momentum, but keep in mind that a move above the 100-hour moving average is still needed to shift the bias back in favor of the bulls.
