Author: FX

The U.S. Consumer Price Index rose 4.2% year-on-year in May, its fastest pace since April 2023, with surging energy costs driven by the Middle East conflict accounting for the bulk of the monthly increase. Source link

The note argues that record fast crude inventory draws are being misread as evidence of no supply problem, when in fact roughly 11 million b/d of shut in production is being offset by a combination of higher refinery throughput, SPR releases and storage drawdowns, none of which are sustainable. If global onshore inventories including SPR are genuinely six weeks from operational minimums, this suggests the market is significantly underpricing tail risk around a supply driven price spike, particularly if any resolution to the Hormuz situation is delayed.The piece is here, its a great read, much better than my trimmed down…

The Breaker Block Indicator MT4 is a technical analysis tool designed to identify breaker blocks, a concept widely used in institutional trading and smart money strategies. A breaker block forms when price breaks a previous support or resistance structure and then returns to that zone. This previous level often flips its role. A broken resistance can become support, and a broken support may act as resistance. The indicator scans historical price data to detect these structural breaks. Once a breaker block is confirmed, it draws a highlighted zone on the chart. Traders then watch how price behaves when it revisits…

The US Central Command (CENTCOM) said it began “additional self-defense strikes” on Wednesday against “multiple targets in Iran,” the Guardian reported. The US military added, “The strikes are in response to Iran’s unwarranted and continued aggression.”This action came after US President Donald Trump said that US forces would hit the country “hard” as Tehran has taken “too long to make a deal” to end the war.Iran’s top joint military command said on Wednesday that it is closing the Strait of Hormuz for “passage of any vessels,” adding that any vessel that attempts passage will be targeted. The closure order includes…

A bearish moving-average signal appears on NZD/USD, but will follow-through validate the crossover? Source link

Count slows in Peru as presidency likely hinges on contested votes Source link

Trump scrambling for ideas to end his stalemate. Reports are that one option under discussion was for a large strike campaign, but short in duration. Goal is to convince Iran to change its position in the negotiations. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com. Source link

The EUR/USD pair trades near the 1.1550 region on Thursday as the Euro (EUR) remains little changed despite expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will raise interest rates at its upcoming policy meeting. Investors remain cautious ahead of the decision, focusing on policymakers’ guidance regarding the future path of monetary policy.Markets widely expect the ECB to deliver a 25-basis-point rate hike as officials continue their efforts to bring inflation back toward target. However, uncertainty over the pace of future tightening and concerns about the Eurozone’s economic outlook have limited demand for the shared currency ahead of the announcement.Meanwhile, the…

Gold extended its decline today after breaking below its 200-day moving average yesterday, a key technical development. The 200-day moving average currently sits at $4,415.51, and the break marked the first sustained move below that benchmark since November 2023. The last meaningful test came in March of this year, when buyers successfully defended the level and pushed prices back higher.Looking at the daily chart, the next major downside targets are coming into focus. The price is approaching the March 2026 low at $4,098.74. Just beneath that level sits the 38.2% retracement of the rally from the September 2022 low at…

ING’s Frantisek Taborsky notes Czech inflation has surprised on the downside, but strong wage growth and stable core inflation keep the Czech National Bank on track for a rate hike at its June meeting. With markets likely to price further tightening, ING sees EUR/CZK testing 24.00 next week and expects more Koruna gains as Czech Republic becomes an early hiker in EM.CNB tightening cycle paints bullish FX picture”Without much surprise today, the CNB seems to be heading for a rate hike at the June meeting next week. The blackout period before the meeting starts on Thursday and we are likely…