Author: FX
USD/CHF has formed lower highs and found support around the .7900 major psychological handle, creating a descending triangle on its 4-hour time frame. Is it due for a breakout soon? Better watch out for candlestick patterns at these inflection points! USD/CHF 4-hour Forex Chart by TradingView TACO trades aren’t exactly doing the U.S. dollar any favors these days, as Trump’s tendency to backpedal on his bombshell announcements is weighing on the currency’s outlook and credibility as safe-haven asset. In contrast, the lower-yielding Swiss franc has been raking in risk-off flows these days, thanks in part to its positive correlation to…
New Zealand’s consumer price inflation dipped from 1.0% to 0.6% on a quarterly basis in Q4 2025, bringing the annual rate to 3.1%. This surpassed both market expectations of a 0.5% quarter-on-quarter gain and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s forecasts, as elevated domestic price pressures continued to offset weaker international pricing. Key Takeaways Annual headline CPI rose 3.1% year-on-year, up from 2.7% in September 2025. Quarterly inflation registered 0.6%, exceeding market and RBNZ forecasts by a tenth of a percentage point. Domestic vs. International Pressures: Non-tradeable inflation, which reflects domestic demand and supply conditions, increased 3.5% annually but showed…
Japan signalled heightened market vigilance while playing down recent bond market stress.Summary:Japan monitoring markets closely amid ongoing volatilityFinance minister says bond market rout has easedDetails of proposed sales tax cut not yet decidedOngoing communication with US Treasury officialsAuthorities stress importance of market dialogueJapan’s government signalled heightened vigilance over financial market conditions on Friday, as Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama acknowledged recent instability across both global and domestic markets while seeking to reassure investors that stress in the bond market has begun to ease.Speaking at a press conference, Katayama said authorities are monitoring market developments with a “high sense of urgency,” reflecting…
On Friday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 6.9929 compared to the previous day’s fix of 7.0019 and 6.9481 Reuters estimate. PBOC FAQs The primary monetary policy objectives of the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market. The PBoC is owned by the state of the People’s Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese…
The Breakout Probability MT4 Indicator analyzes price compression and volatility to assign a percentage likelihood to potential breakouts. Unlike simple support and resistance indicators, this tool calculates the statistical probability of price breaking through a defined range based on current market conditions. The indicator displays probability percentages above consolidation zones, typically ranging from 0% to 100%. A reading above 70% suggests favorable conditions for a breakout, while readings below 30% indicate the range may hold. But here’s the thing—these aren’t guarantees. They’re statistical edges based on pattern recognition. Most versions show dual probabilities: one for upside breaks and another for…
Markets rallied on Thursday as geopolitical tensions eased following President Trump’s withdrawal of threatened tariffs against European allies, while solid US economic data reinforced expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain its cautious approach to policy adjustments. Check out the forex news and economic updates you may have missed in the latest trading session! Forex News Headlines & Data: New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending for December 2025: -1.0% y/y (1.8% y/y forecast; 1.6% y/y previous) New Zealand Visitor Arrivals for November 2025: 8.2% y/y (4.0% y/y forecast; 9.4% y/y previous) Japan Balance of Trade for December 2025: 105.7B (-400.0B…
Article Highlights GBP/JPY closed above its upper Bollinger Band, signaling a short-term volatility extension. The move puts focus on whether price reverts toward the 20-day mean or continues a bullish band walk. Follow-through near the 214.10–214.30 resistance zone will be key for confirmation or rejection. GBP/JPY just pushed into an area that often gets traders’ attention: the outer edge of its recent volatility range. Moves like this can appear to be a sign of strength on the surface, but they can also indicate “stretch” conditions that may not persist without follow-through. With price now extended relative to its 20-day baseline,…
New Zealand inflation data:Analysts expect New Zealand consumer prices to have increased by around 0.5% in the December quarter, leaving annual inflation steady at 3.0%. The quarterly rise is largely attributed to higher petrol prices and seasonal increases in travel and accommodation costs over the holiday period. These pressures were partly offset by a typical seasonal decline in food prices. Beneath the headline figures, measures of core inflation have continued to ease over the past year, with most indicators now sitting in the 2–3% range. This projection is above the RBNZ’s November MPS forecast of 0.2% quarterly inflation and an…
In our previous update, we found that by using the Elliott Wave (EW) Principle for the NASDAQ 100 (NDX) Source link
TD Cowen is out with a bullish report on the metals complex, arguing the macroeconomic setup for the next several years is the strongest in years. The core thesis rests on chronic underinvestment colliding with supply deficits, creating a particularly favorable environment for copper and uranium.The supply side of the copper equation is tightening significantly. Supply growth in 2025 fell to just 1.4%, marking the lowest levels since the pandemic. This output gap is the cumulative result of years of insufficient capital expenditure and recent high-profile mine disruptions. Consequently, forecasts for copper deficits have been extended through 2027, prompting a…