Author: FX

BNP Paribas highlights that European Union exports to China fell sharply in 2025, while exports to nearby partners such as Türkiye, Morocco, Ukraine and the Balkans increased. The bank notes that these neighbours now absorb a larger share of EU exports than China and sees this shift as structural, supported by investment, nearshoring and EU industrial policy initiatives.Neighbouring markets gain share in exports”Market opportunities in China are shrinking dramatically due to the country’s shift towards higher-end products and its import substitution policy. 2025 marked an unprecedented turning point in this regard: European exports to China fell by 14% in nominal…

Metals Acquisition II prices $200M IPO at $10 per unit Source link

Before the US-Iran conflict, EUR/USD took a run at the 1.2000 level as upside risks looked more likely to win out as we started the year. But in the last two weeks, the script has completely flipped amid surging energy prices globally. In particular, European gas has also surged higher in following oil prices as Iran threatens further disruption in the Gulf region.That has not only seen the dollar come back into favour but is also weighing on the euro amid higher energy prices. That might prove to be a drag on economic activity in the region, which until recently…

Let’s walk through a real application. On Tuesday morning, GBP/USD opens at 1.2650 during the London session. Within the first hour, price reaches a high of 1.2685 and a low of 1.2638. The Orb Indicator draws two horizontal lines at these levels. These become your key reference points. Throughout the session, price consolidates between these boundaries. At 11:30 AM EST, a strong bullish candle closes at 1.2692—above the opening range high. Traders watching the Orb Indicator recognize this as a potential breakout signal. The move continues to 1.2730 over the next three hours because the break confirmed directional intent from…

Standard Chartered strategist Nicholas Chia now expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise the cash rate to 4.10% at the 17 March meeting, reversing a prior call for a hold. The bank still anticipates another hike in Q2, lifting its terminal rate forecast to 4.35%. Firm activity data and rising inflation expectations are seen driving RBA hawkishness.Rising expectations push RBA hawkish”Recent activity indicators remain firm and RBA messaging prior to the blackout period has leaned hawkish.””But what moved the needle for us was the recent upshift in inflation expectations, which we think the RBA has very limited tolerance for.…

Goldman Sachs hikes oil outlook as Brent hits $100; analysts brace for 'persistent' Hormuz shutdown Source link

Air New Zealand to cut flights as fuel price surge wreaks havoc on travel Source link

If you’ve been watching currency markets this week and wondering why the Australian dollar is suddenly the hottest currency on the board, you’re not alone. AUD has climbed to its highest level since June 2022, and it’s up more than 13% over the past 12 months. So, what’s driving the move? In short, several factors lined up at once. A definitive hawkish shift from Australia’s central bank, a geopolitical crisis spiking global energy prices, and a unique quirk that makes Australia one of the few economies in the world that actually benefits from an oil price shock. Let’s break it…

Bitcoin appears to be stuck in another holding pattern, but it’s daily time frame reveals that the longer-term trend could still carry on. Are we about to see a major pullback or a breakdown? Check out these potential inflection points! Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Daily Chart Faster with TradingView Bitcoin appears to have flip-flopped between trading as “digital gold” and a risk asset, leaving price stuck inside a range since last month. Still, the emergence of slightly higher lows suggests that bullish pressure could be building, potentially taking BTC/USD to the next upside barriers. Are the Fib retracement levels about to hold…

The Canadian economy has had its fair share of hits and misses with economic data these days. What will the upcoming employment report imply about BOC policy expectations? Source link