Author: FX
OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong describe a technical rebound in USD/TWD driven by broader US Dollar (USD) strength and risk aversion linked to the US‑Iran ceasefire stalemate. While near-term upside risks persist, they still prefer fading rallies, citing strong foreign inflows into Taiwanese equities, high correlation with the tech cycle, and robust AI-led export momentum as supportive for the Taiwan Dollar (TWD).Short-term squeeze versus tech support”Technical rebound fade. USDTWD rebounded, tracking the broad uptick in USD as risk sentiment was restraint.””The squeeze higher in USDTWD was consistent with our technical caution for falling wedge – typically associated…
DBS Group Research economist Samuel Tse analyses recent steepening in Chinese Yuan (CNY) rates, linking it to a ceasefire between the United States (US) and Iran and stronger-than-expected Q1 growth in China. He highlights resilient Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), firm industrial and external activity, robust onshore bond demand and continued offshore inflows, arguing this backdrop supports a stable front end and an accommodative but measured People’s Bank of China (PBoC) stance.Steepening curve on solid macro backdrop”The CNY curve has steepened in the past week, driven by a ceasefire between the US and Iran and a stronger-than-expected macro starting point in…
The Strait of Hormuz kept markets on edge all week, but blowout US data, oil swings, and a hot NZD CPI made for no shortage of action. Source link
USD/CHF dropped on Friday but finished the week with gains of over 0.35%, trading at 0.7841 as market participants grew confident that US-Iran talks could resume over the weekend to resolve the conflict.USD/CHF Price Forecast: Technical OutlookFrom a technical perspective, USD/CHF appears poised to remain in a consolidation within the 0.7800-0.7900 range. Momentum, as measured by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), suggests further downside, as the index is bearish and pointing lower.Price action suggests the uptrend might be pausing after hitting a nine-day high of 0.7877, but closing near the 50-day SMA at 0.7840 and failing to clear key resistance…
The North American session leaned firmly toward a risk-on tone, with equities pushing higher, oil easing, and yields drifting modestly lower. The backdrop for the move was driven largely by renewed diplomatic momentum, as talks between the U.S. and Iran appear to be gaining traction- with Pakistan playing a central role. While headlines throughout the day were at times inconsistent and even contradictory, the broader narrative pointed toward re-engagement rather than escalation.U.S. envoy Witkoff and Jared Kushner are reportedly en route, while Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi is also expected to be in the region. Current indications suggest that all…
Lloyd Chan at MUFG highlights that USD/IDR has broken to fresh highs, overshooting earlier expectations for near-term stabilization. The move is attributed more to domestic confidence and fiscal uncertainty than broad US Dollar (USD) strength. While upside risks have increased, MUFG also flags growing signs of Rupiah undervaluation and potential constraints from Bank Indonesia’s policy response.Domestic confidence shock drives USD/IDR”USD/IDR has reached fresh all-time highs around 17,300 level. This overshoots our prior near-term stabilisation view around 17,000. This move appears less about global USD strength and more about a domestic confidence shock, with markets likely reacting to heightened fiscal uncertainty.””In…
Silver (XAG/USD) price edges up over 0.50% during Friday’s session, after bouncing off a daily low of $73.95. Speculation about a resumption of negotiations between Washington and Tehran is cheered by investors, which pushed US equities higher in tandem with the precious metals segment. At the time of writing, the XAG/USD pair trades at $75.83,XAG/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlookTechnically, Silver is poised to consolidate within the 20- and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), both at $75.64. Worth noting that since bottoming at around $61.02 on March 23, the white metal continued to record higher lows, an indication that the uptrend…
OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note the central bank of Philippines Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) 25bp hike to 4.5% and guidance that further increases are possible as inflation forecasts are revised higher and second-round effects emerge. While this reduces the risk of BSP falling behind the curve and is relatively supportive for Philippine Peso (PHP), the Peso remains vulnerable to imported energy shocks and uncertain US‑Iran ceasefire dynamics.Higher rates versus energy vulnerability”More hikes not ruled out. BSP hiked policy rate by 25bp to 4.5% at its last MPC meeting (23 Apr). The Board now sees a…
The major US stock indices are closing mixed with the Dow industrial average lower while the broader S&P and NASDAQ indices are closing higher, and at record levels.A snapshot of the closing levels shows: Dow industrial average -79.61 points or -0.16% at 49230.71S&P +56.68 points or 0.80% at 7165.08NASDAQ index up 398.09 points or 1.63% at 24836.60The small-cap Russell 2000 rose 11.90 points or 0.43% at 2787.00.For the trading week, the Dow industrial average also fell while the S&P and NASDAQ indices closed higher: Dow industrial average fell -0.44%S&P index rose 0.55%NASDAQ index rose 1.50%The winners were clearly dominated by…
There’s a noticeable amount of positioning and repositioning ahead of the weekend, with headlines offering a mixed and at times conflicting picture. The market is reacting to uncertainty around potential diplomatic developments with a tilt toward confidence, but clarity and certainty remains limited for now. A trilateral meeting with the US, Iran, and Pakistan will only be considered after Pakistan first meets with Iran’s Araghchi A meeting between the US and Iran may not take place until Monday Witkoff and Kushner, meanwhile, are expected to hold separate talks with Pakistan on Sunday Iran’s foreign ministry says its foreign minister will…