Author: FX

TD Securities strategists, including Andrew Kelvin and colleagues, expect the Bank of Canada to keep the Overnight Rate at 2.25% through the April meeting and likely for the rest of 2026. They see the Bank striking a more balanced but still cautious tone, emphasizing two-sided growth risks from higher Oil prices and USMCA renegotiation while looking through near-term inflation spikes.BoC seen on extended hold with neutral tone”We look for the Bank of Canada to hold rates at 2.25% as the policy statement strikes another cautious tone. Higher energy prices will drive a sharp upgrade to the Bank’s inflation forecast in…

The week ahead is stacked with global central bank decisions and top-tier inflation and growth data, making it one of the most important macro weeks of the month. The Bank of Japan kicks things off, but the focus quickly shifts to a midweek cluster of Bank of Canada and FOMC decisions, followed by a “super Thursday” featuring the BOE and ECB alongside U.S. GDP and Core PCE. Inflation readings out of Australia and growth data globally add another layer, meaning rates, yields, and FX volatility could be elevated throughout the week.Monday (April 27)BOJ Policy Rate Decision: No change expectedBOJ Monetary…

Rabobank’s Senior Macro Strategist Stefan Koopman expects the Bank of England’s (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to leave Bank Rate at 3.75% at the April meeting, maintaining its vigilant stance. Koopman notes weaker domestic demand, already restrictive policy and lower-than-expected energy prices, which may slightly reduce near-term inflation forecasts, while still anticipating one additional rate hike rather than a full renewed hiking cycle.BoE seen on hold with cautious bias”With markets having stabilised in recent weeks, we expect the MPC to keep Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75% at the April meeting and to reiterate the vigilant stance set out in March.””Even…

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is losing momentum near the 98.50 price zone and continues drifting lower from recent highs as markets unwind part of the recent US Dollar (USD) rally despite still strong United States (US) data and ongoing Middle East tensions. Profit-taking into the weekend, alongside a modest pullback in US yields, is weighing on the Greenback even as Oil prices remain elevated above $90 this week, keeping inflation concerns alive.Investors are already positioning for next week’s key central bank meetings, including the Federal Reserve (Fed), European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of Japan (BoJ), and Bank of England…

Scott Bessent in a WSJ interview speaks about the key economy and policy goals as he maneuvers through the Iranian war and other global economic hurdles.: Goal: Restore strong U.S. growth following war disruptions while keeping expansion intact Balance inflation vs. growth: Bring inflation down without choking economic expansion Lift real wages: Focus on improving income for the bottom 50% of earners Reassert U.S. dominance in key sectors: Chips, AI, and energy seen as critical to future prosperity China strategy = “de-risk, not decouple” (maintain trade but reduce dependency) Targeted independence: Critical minerals, medicines, and semiconductors prioritized for domestic resilience…

Earnings season so far has come in better than expected and broadly supportive for equities, helping push major indices back toward record highs despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. Early reports show that roughly 80%–85% of S&P 500 companies have beaten earnings estimates, a strong beat rate by historical standards, with profits tracking toward double-digit growth of around 13%–16% year-over-year.The strength has been led by technology and AI-related companies, where demand and investment trends continue to surprise to the upside, while financials also started the season on solid footing. At the same time, energy companies have benefited from elevated oil prices tied…

The positive headlines around Iran continue to mount:Witkoff and Kushner headed to Pakistan on Saturday morning, according to the White House“We hope that positive developments will come from this meeting” Leavitt saidIran reached out an asked for an in person meetingVance will be standing by in the USEveryone will be on standby to fly to Pakistan if neededAxios also reported that Witkoff and Kushner would travel “in the coming days” but the details of that report were less encouraging. It says:The diplomatic efforts haven’t made any progress in recent days. The trip is an effort to break the stalemate and…

MUFG’s Derek Halpenny argues that the ongoing United States (US) blockade in the Strait of Hormuz is building a significant inflation shock for the US and globally, with Oil and input costs surging. He notes that President Trump’s strategy of squeezing Iran’s energy revenues is time‑consuming and politically costly, and expects rising inflation and global central bank responses to increasingly shape US Dollar performance.Blockade-driven price pressures and policy risk”The US blockade in the Strait of Hormuz continues with little sign of any progress toward another round of peace talks. President Trump has ordered the US navy to shoot at any…

USDJPY is pressing to fresh session lows, with sellers leaning on the pair and probing below the 100-hour moving average at 159.347. The move comes as US yields edge lower, with the 10-year down around 2 basis points to near 4.303%. While that dip offers some support for the downside in USDJPY, yields remain above the 4.30% level, which continues to act as a floor and limits the extent of the dollar’s decline. In other words, the rate backdrop is helping sellers at the margin, but it is not yet a full green light for a deeper move lower.At the…

Now there is some real smoke around the idea that there is division in the Iranian delegation.Iran state media reports that Ghalibaf is out for including nuclear in negotiations (translated):According to information received by Iran International, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, head of the Islamic Republic’s negotiating delegation with U.S. representatives in Islamabad, has resigned and stepped down from membership in this delegation.Based on this information, Qalibaf has been reprimanded in the Islamic Republic for his efforts to include the nuclear energy issue as part of the negotiation axes with America, and has been forced to resign.According to Iran International’s information, the…