Author: FX

The June FOMC meeting minutes could give traders a cleaner look at just how divided the Fed really is. With Kevin Warsh skipping his own rate projection and the latest dot plot still leaning hawkish, markets will be watching for clues on whether another rate hike is truly on the table. But with Middle East headlines still moving oil and risk sentiment, the dollar’s reaction may depend on more than the minutes alone. Source link

Tanker attacks near a key shipping route and a fresh OPEC+ supply increase are pulling oil prices in opposite directions this week. How can markets make sense of these conflicting signals, and what kind of headlines should traders be watching out for? What Actually Happened? Over the weekend, the OPEC+ approved another production increase of 188,000 barrels per day for August. Saudi and UAE exports climbed back near pre-conflict levels. Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which was significantly disrupted earlier this year during the broader Iran-Israel-U.S. conflict, showed real signs of normalizing. A few days later, Iranian forces…

Oil climbs, bonds slide on Mideast hostilities Source link

The Future Prediction Indicator MT4 is designed to help traders estimate possible future price direction by analyzing historical market behavior and current price momentum. Instead of guessing where the market might go, it provides a projected path that traders can compare with real price action before placing an order. Used correctly, it can improve trade timing and reduce emotional decisions. It doesn’t predict the future with certainty, but it gives traders another layer of analysis to support their trading plan. Understanding how this indicator works makes it much easier to decide when its signals deserve attention and when they should…

China’s purchase of more than 26 million barrels in a matter of days sits on top of its normal Gulf buying of around 5.5 million barrels a day through formal channels, making this a genuine surge rather than routine restocking, and it lands alongside Germany’s own diesel and gas reserve rebuild, suggesting major economies on both ends of the supply chain are moving to lock in barrels while they can. Saudi Arabia’s decision to cut its official selling price discount to minus 1.5 dollars a barrel on Monday looks like the direct trigger, making Gulf crude notably cheaper and pulling…

UOB’s Quek Ser Leang notes that the US Dollar against the Chinese Yuan has stayed within the previously flagged range, with only modest upward momentum despite a push toward 6.8000. He still sees USD/CNH confined between 6.7750 and 6.8080 over the next 1–3 weeks, with nearby support at 6.7900 and 6.7850 and major resistance at 6.8080.Dollar stays capped in defined range”24-HOUR VIEW: Yesterday, we were of the view that USD “is likely to trade in a range between 6.7800 and 6.7930.” We were incorrect, as USD rose to a high of 6.7998. Despite the advance, upward momentum has not increased…

Oil jumped 4.7% after the U.S. pulled Iran’s waiver, the dollar recovered, and gold fell. Updated scenarios, fresh levels, and the Wednesday Fed-minutes plan inside. Source link

USD/CAD started the year at 1.37 and has risen to 1.42. I expect we round trip. The USMCA negotiations are top of mind right now but the ‘ask’ side from the US is manageable and I see plenty of signs of confidence on the Canadian side. There will be some token concessions but – after some brinksmanship – there should be some clarity and a relief rally. If anything, the risks are all to the CAD upside as there is a high likelihood of lower tariffs for steel, aluminum and perhaps lumber. On Monday we got the Q2 business outlook…

Commerzbank’s Dr. Ralph Solveen notes that German industrial output rose 0.9% in May versus April, leaving April–May production slightly above the first-quarter average. With manufacturing sales outperforming output and energy prices having spiked only temporarily, he argues there is a growing likelihood that the German economy avoided contraction in spring and could resume recovery later in 2026 as Oil prices fall.German industry shows tentative improvement”Industrial output rose by 0.9% in May compared with the previous month. As a result, output in April and May was slightly above the Q1 average. Since sales have performed even slightly better, there is a…

The June U.S. jobs report came in as traders were already juggling Fed uncertainty, fragile risk sentiment, and yen intervention nerves. With central bankers stepping back from clear forward guidance, one data print had the potential to punch well above its usual weight. Here’s how our NFP watchlist held up once the numbers crossed and the dollar started moving. Watchlists are price outlook & strategy discussions supported by both fundamental & technical analysis, a crucial step towards creating a high-quality discretionary trade idea before working on a risk & trade management plan. If you’d like to follow our “Watchlist” picks…