Author: FX

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 3.0 points in March to 95.8, leaving it below its 52-year average of 98.0. The last time the Optimism Index fell below its historical average was April 2025. The Uncertainty Index rose 4 points from February to 92, well above its historical average of 68.NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg said: “The 20% Small Business Deduction and other supportive small business tax provisions in the Working Families Tax Cut Act have had many positives for small business owners. However, the dramatic spike in oil prices has spooked consumers and owners alike. Small business owners…

Rabobank strategists note that US stocks have risen even as the Hormuz crisis threatens higher energy costs. They point to upcoming United States (US) Producer Price Index (PPI) and the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) small business optimism index as key for gauging upstream inflation, pricing power and labour costs, suggesting the Dollar’s outlook will hinge on how energy and supply‑chain pressures filter into broader US inflation dynamics.PPI and NFIB in focus for markets”Today sees US PPI, with markets alert to signs that energy and supply‑chain pressures are lifting upstream inflation. We also have the US NFIB small business…

The math behind automatic support and resistance isn’t rocket science, but it’s precise. Most indicators use swing point detection algorithms that identify local highs and lows within a specified lookback period. Here’s what happens under the hood: The indicator scans backward—say, 100 bars on a 4-hour chart. It identifies peaks and troughs where price reversed by a minimum threshold, typically 10-15 pips for major pairs. When price touches a level multiple times without breaking through, the algorithm assigns it higher weight. Some advanced versions factor in volume data from tick movements, giving more credibility to levels where heavy trading occurred.…

WTI crude is down a little over 2% today to just below $97 now, effectively closing the Monday gap higher. This comes after some positive headlines yesterday, with reports of a second round of talks later this week. For the most part, markets seem to be taking their cue from what US president Trump has to say.Trump is now saying that the US is in touch with “the right people” from Iran and believes that they will agree on de-nuclearisation. He also seems eager to move on already as he mentions that “we may stop by Cuba after we’re finished…

Silver (XAG/USD) builds on the previous day’s bounce from the vicinity of mid-$72.00s and gains some follow-through positive traction during the Asian session on Tuesday. The white metal climbs to the $76.80 region in the last hour, with bulls looking to build on an intraday breakout momentum above the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart.The XAG/USD is also trading comfortably above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the downfall in March, reinforcing the underlying constructive bullish outlook. Adding to this, a firm Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 60 and a marginally positive Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)…

Singapore tightens monetary policy as Iran war fuels inflation risks Source link

CHF/JPY has been on a steady climb these days, but its rally might be cut short as it closes in on a long-term ceiling. Will we see a bounce or break from here? Source link

This indicator displays three exponential moving averages (EMAs) on your chart, typically set to different periods like 5, 10, and 20. The basic concept is straightforward: when the fastest MA crosses above the medium and slow MAs in sequence, it signals bullish momentum. When they cross below, it suggests bearish pressure. The MT5 version often comes with customizable colors and alert options, making it easier to spot crossovers without staring at your screen all day. Some traders use simple moving averages (SMAs) instead of EMAs, but EMAs react faster to price changes, which matters when you’re trying to catch moves…

marchello74/iStock via Getty ImagesChicago’s reputation as a relatively affordable big city is eroding as rents climb sharply, driven by a persistent shortage of new housing and a slowdown in construction, Bloomberg News reported Monday. Average monthly rent reached about $1,956 by the end of Source link

Summary:Hauser flags stagflation risk as central bank “nightmare” Inflation still too high in Australia Supply capacity described as constrained Energy prices seen as major income shock Focus on preventing rise in inflation expectationsRBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser warned that Australia is facing a difficult macroeconomic backdrop, with elevated inflation and constrained supply capacity raising the risk of a stagflation-style scenario if energy shocks persist.Speaking in a fireside chat, Hauser described the central bank’s “nightmare” outcome as one where inflation rises while economic activity weakens, a combination that would complicate policy decisions. He emphasised that inflation in Australia remains too high…