Author: FX

Commerzbank’s Thu Lan Nguyen argues that despite what is described as the greatest threat to energy security in history, implied EUR/USD volatility remains unusually low. She links expected FX volatility to monetary policy expectations and notes that similar-sized rate repricing in US and Eurozone limits expected differential moves. Nguyen is less optimistic than markets about ECB responsiveness, seeing scope for corrections and stronger EUR/USD swings.Options market underpricing EUR/USD risk”… the implied exchange rate volatilities currently priced into the options market are almost shockingly low. The 3-month implied volatility for EUR/USD is trading significantly lower than it was at the start…

Air Canada Express plane hits ground vehicle at New York’s La Guardia airport, FlightRadar24 says Source link

With war breaking out in the Middle East and an energy crisis ongoing, global economic uncertainty has been through the roof these days. So why has gold been crashing? Gold hit an all-time high of $5,589 in January 2026, then proceeded to fall about 22% below $4,400 by late March. That’s one of the worst weekly routs for the metal since 2011! If you assumed “conflict = gold up forever,” the past week just proved that rule has some very big exceptions. Here’s what actually happened and why it matters for how you think about safe-haven assets going forward. The…

If you were hoping for a quiet start to the trading week, you might want to brew an extra pot of coffee. On Friday, March 20, President Trump posted that the U.S. was “getting very close” to winding down military operations in Iran. Oil eased, and markets exhaled. Then, less than 24 hours later, Trump flipped the script entirely — threatening to “obliterate” Iranian power plants unless the Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened within 48 hours. The global markets are currently staring down a ticking clock that’s set to expire Monday night around 7:44 PM ET. Iran’s parliament responded…

Silver seems to be bracing for a major selloff, as the precious metal is starting to close below its descending triangle support. How low can it go? Check out these potential targets on the 4-hour time frame! Silver (XAG/USD) 4-hour Chart Faster With TradingView This precious metal has been stuck inside a holding pattern for quite some time, forming lower highs and finding support around the $72 mark since the start of the year. The floor seems to be giving way, possibly sending silver on a free fall similar to that of gold these days. Or can it still climb…

Fitch’s note from Friday. Scenarios highlight the scale of upside risk to oil prices, with prolonged Hormuz disruption potentially driving Brent toward $120 and keeping markets volatile.Summary:Fitch outlines oil price scenarios tied to duration of Hormuz closure Brent seen averaging $120/bbl in 2026 under six-month disruption Three-month closure scenario points to ~$100/bbl average Base case remains $70/bbl, assuming only temporary disruption Prices could spike to $130–$170/bbl during extended closure Estimated loss of ~15mb/d in transit volumes through Hormuz Demand destruction expected in prolonged disruption scenarios IEA reserve releases seen cushioning near-term supply shockFitch Ratings has outlined a range of oil…

The AUD/USD pair opened with a modest bearish gap on Monday and touched a one-week low during the Asian session, though it lacked follow-through selling. Spot prices currently trade around the 0.7000 psychological mark, down 0.25% for the day,A further escalation of tensions in the Middle East, along with reduced bets for more rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed), acts as a tailwind for the US Dollar (USD) and weighs on the AUD/USD pair. However, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (Fed) hawkish stance offers some support to the Aussie and helps limit the downside for the currency pair.From…

The Wyckoff Indicator MT5 addresses this by translating Richard Wyckoff’s century-old methodology into actionable visual signals. This tool identifies accumulation and distribution zones where institutional money operates, giving retail traders a fighting chance to align with—rather than against—market heavyweights. Understanding the Wyckoff Method in Digital Form The Wyckoff Indicator isn’t a typical oscillator that bounces between oversold and overbought levels. It’s built on analyzing price and volume relationships to identify market phases. Richard Wyckoff’s original work focused on four distinct phases: accumulation, markup, distribution, and markdown. The MT5 adaptation visualizes these phases through composite calculations that track volume patterns, price…

Goldman Sachs raises oil forecasts as extended Hormuz disruption and structural supply risks lift long-term price expectations.Summary:Goldman Sachs lifts oil price forecasts on prolonged Hormuz disruption Bank now assumes flows operate at ~5% capacity for six weeks Recovery expected to take an additional month thereafter Structural risks seen driving higher long-term oil prices Concentration of supply and spare capacity flagged as key concern Strategic stockpiling likely to increase globally Brent 2026 forecast raised to $85 (from $77) WTI 2026 forecast lifted to $79 (from $72)Goldman Sachs has raised its oil price forecasts for 2026, citing an extended disruption to flows…

Markets on edge as U.S.-Iran conflict deepens, energy risks mount Source link