Author: FX

The ATR Stop Loss Indicator is a volatility-based tool that calculates stop-loss levels using the Average True Range (ATR) of price movements. Unlike fixed stop losses, it adjusts automatically according to market conditions. At its core, the indicator measures the range between high and low prices over a specified period, factoring in gaps and intra-bar movements. Traders can set a multiplier to the ATR value, determining how far from the entry price the stop should sit. For example, a 1.5x ATR stop on a 14-period calculation adapts automatically: during calm markets, the stop might be 20 pips; during volatile spikes,…

Commerzbank (note from Friday) raised its Brent forecast to $90/bbl by end-September and $85 by year-end, up from $80 for both, citing Hormuz closure, inventory draws and a slow Gulf output recovery. Summary:Brent forecast raised to $90/bbl by end-September and $85 by year-end, up from a prior $80 for both periods, on the assumption the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for another two months until early AugustEven an immediate US-Iran agreement would require several weeks of mine-clearing before safe navigation resumes; Iran has reportedly been given 30 days for deminingGulf oil production expected to remain below pre-war levels for some…

Monday’s session was a study in geopolitical whipsaw, as markets lurched between risk-off and risk-on on the Iran-US nuclear negotiations front while a blowout ISM Manufacturing PMI sharpened the hawkish case for Federal Reserve policy. Iran’s suspension of nuclear talks in protest over Israeli strikes in Lebanon pushed equities sharply lower at the US open, before President Trump announced an Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire and declared that Iranian negotiations were moving at a rapid pace, driving a recovery toward all-time highs. Oil surged on Hormuz supply disruption fears while gold and Bitcoin retreated as safe-haven demand faded and rate hike expectations rose.…

BNP Paribas reports that Chinese GDP growth accelerated to 5.0% year-on-year in Q1 2026 from 4.5% in Q4 2025, but is expected to slow moderately over the year. The bank highlights a K-shaped trajectory, with dynamic exports but sluggish domestic demand and ongoing property sector stress. Authorities are seen maintaining supportive but modest fiscal and monetary policies, while deflationary pressures should ease in 2026.K shaped growth and easing deflation risks”Economic growth accelerated to +5.0% y/y in Q1 2026, vs. +4.5% in Q4 2025.””It stood at 5% in 2025 as a whole and it is expected to slow moderately in 2026.””Growth…

The S&P 500 is up 36 points, or 0.5%, and a fresh record. The 7617 level is the new peak and comes on the same headline’s about a ceasefire that have helped to fuel the rally from 6300 just a few weeks ago.It’s been a sensational rally that’s likely more driven by AI enthusiasm than anything else. That said, the shape of today’s rally once again underscores that Iran headlines are market movers.SPX dailyUnder the surface, anything touching computing has joined into the rally in the past month. Today’s move is led by IBM up 8.7%, HP up 8.6% and…

The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded around 0.4% lower Monday, shedding roughly 200 points to sit near 50,800 after pulling back from the record-area highs above 51,100 set last week. The S&P 500 was only marginally lower and the Nasdaq Composite hovered close to flat, a split that tells the day’s real story: a serious geopolitical escalation met a market that mostly refused to flinch. Iran tearing up the diplomatic track and pointing at the world’s two most important Oil chokepoints sent crude sharply higher, but with AI and semiconductor names doing the heavy lifting, equities are once again treating…

Report from Tasnim:Iran stops message exchange with the US in protest against Zionist crimesThreatens more aggression in HormuzWill take action in Bab el-Mandeb StraitIsreal today announced it’s encroaching further into Lebanon. Iran says that the ceasefire has been violated on all fronts and that halting aggression in Lebanon was a condition of the ceasefire.This report has markets moving.Here is the full message on Tasnim’s Telegram (translated):Urgent / Iran to Halt Message Exchanges with the U.S. in Protest of Zionist CrimesDetermination of Iran’s Armed Forces and All Resistance Fronts to Respond to Zionist Crimes and Open New Fronts• Tasnim News Agency…

The AUD/USD pair trades in a tight range around 0.7175 during the European trading session on Monday. The Aussie pair consolidates as uncertainty regarding the United States (US)-Iran negotiations toward a permanent peace deal has escalated.Financial market participants have turned slightly cautious towards the US-Iran peace deal finalization, following amendments from US President Donald Trump in the potential deal. Trump said in an interview with Fox News over the weekend that neither he wants Iran to develop nuclear weapons nor to purchase them. Trump added that negotiations with Iran remain ongoing and Washington is in no rush for a deal.Meanwhile,…

The Depth of Market Indicator is a technical tool that displays pending buy (bid) and sell (ask) orders at various price levels. Unlike traditional charts that only show past price movements, the DOM shows the market’s current order flow. Essentially, it lets traders see where large players are placing orders and where potential price reactions might occur. On a 1-hour EUR/USD chart, for example, seeing a concentration of 50,000+ buy orders at 1.0950 can indicate strong support. Similarly, large sell orders at 1.0980 may act as resistance. This transparency allows traders to plan entries around likely areas of price hesitation…

GDP +0.7% vs +0.6% q/q expectedPrior +0.1%; revised to +0.2%GDP (adjusted for sporting events) +0.4% q/qPrior +0.5%Looking at the details, it is the industrial sector that helped to bring up growth in the first quarter of 2026. The sector grew strongly (+1.3%) with manufacturing (+1.5%) in particular being a key component to growth conditions. That said, it was not all good in the industrial sector as chemical and pharmaceutical declined strongly during the quarter (-3.4%).As for the services sector, overall conditions remain relatively subdued. The sector posted mild growth (+0.2%) on the quarter amid positive contributions from transport (+1.9%) and…