Author: FX
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The latest Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker is out and it’s up to 5.4% annualized in the fourth quarter from 5.3% previously. It’s a tough quarter to track because so much of the data has been screwed up by the long US government shutdown.Today’s construction spending numbers along with some recent data has been led to the change:The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2025 is 5.4 percent on January 21, up from 5.3 percent on January 14. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Labor…
Investor caution remains elevated amid geopolitical tensions, unsettled global equities, and a sharp rally in gold, which has climbed more than $100 to $4865. While the US Dollar (USD) is only marginally firmer, concerns over Fed autonomy, sticky inflation, and rising yields could prompt further trimming of US asset exposure in the months ahead, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report. Fed independence in focus amid rising market risks”There is clearly still a broader sense of unease among investors who remain concerned about the Trump’s Greenland ambitions and their potential fallout. Non-core major currencies which had underperformed…
The UK inflation data just dropped with a modest upside surprise, and while our pre-event watchlists identified potential GBP strength scenarios on pairs like GBP/CHF and GBP/AUD, the broader market environment is sending us wildly contradictory signals. Gold is screaming “danger!” while the dollar shrugs and equities stumble – classic symptoms of a market that hasn’t decided what it wants to be when it grows up. In these muddled conditions, the smartest play often isn’t picking a direction but rather identifying which technical levels and intermarket signals would need to align before a clearer probability edge emerges. …
If you’ve been watching the trade spat between the U.S. and Europe lately, you’ve probably heard a provocative idea floating around: What if Europe just dumped all its US assets? The scenario sounds dramatic. Fed up with President Trump’s tariff threats over Greenland and trade disputes, European governments coordinate a massive sell-off of U.S. Treasury bonds and stocks. Markets panic. Interest rates spike. The dollar crashes. America learns a painful lesson about pushing its allies too far. But here’s the question traders should be asking: Could this actually happen, and what would the fallout really look like? The Numbers: Europe’s…
Trump has officially arrived in Zurich now and is headed to Davos next for the World Economic Forum (WEF). As a reminder, his special address is still scheduled for 1330 GMT. So, it won’t be long now and media opportunities will have to be brief if Trump is to stick with the agenda today.As we await his address, equities are starting to feel the nerves and anxiousness again now. S&P 500 futures are down 0.2% with Nasdaq futures down 0.4%. And in Europe, the DAX is down 1.0% on the day with the CAC 40 index also lower by 0.4%…
Swiss National Bank (SNB) Chairman Martin Schlegel said during European trading hours on Wednesday that there is a high possibility of “negative inflation prints this year”, and, however, a few months of negative inflation “wouldn’t be a problem”.Market reactionThere seems to be little positive impact from SNB Schlegel’s comments on the Swiss Franc (CHF), despite being unfavorable technically. Still, USD/CHF trades 0.3% higher to near 0.7925. SNB FAQs The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is the country’s central bank. As an independent central bank, its mandate is to ensure price stability in the medium and long term. To ensure price stability,…
The UT Bot MT4 Indicator emerged as a solution to this exact problem, offering automated signals that attempt to catch trends while keeping traders out of choppy, directionless markets. Built on a combination of Average True Range (ATR) and moving average calculations, this tool has gained traction among forex traders looking for clearer entry and exit points without the constant second-guessing. What the UT Bot Indicator Actually Does The UT Bot is a trend-following indicator that plots buy and sell signals directly on the price chart. Unlike basic moving average crossovers, it uses ATR to create dynamic trailing stops that…
Tomoko Yoshino is the chair of Japan’s largest trade union group, Rengo, and she’s offering up some remarks on the situation ahead of the spring wage negotiations this year. Much like Takaichi, she is also the first female chief in the organisation’s history.For some context, Rengo’s estimated wage hikes are typically a bellwether for how the overall shuntō is going to play out in March. It was reported previously that they are aiming for wage hikes of at least 5% or more for the fiscal year 2026. They demanded 6% for the current fiscal year 2025 but in the end,…
Gold (XAU/USD) prolongs its weekly uptrend for the third straight day and continues scaling new all-time highs through the Asian session on Wednesday. US President Donald Trump’s threat to slap fresh tariffs on eight European countries that opposed his plan to acquire Greenland triggers a sharp uptick in volatility. Apart from this, persistent geopolitical uncertainties temper investors’ appetite for riskier assets and continue to boost demand for the traditional safe-haven commodity.The momentum lifts the precious metal to the $4,850 level in the last hour and is further sponsored by the prevailing bearish tone surrounding the US Dollar (USD). Trump’s tariff…