Author: FX
The IEA lifted its oil demand outlook but warned supply growth continues to overwhelm consumption, keeping surplus risks firmly in place. Summary:IEA raises 2026 oil demand growth forecast to 930k bpdSupply growth still far exceeds demand at 2.5mbpdDecember output fell, but surplus remains intactRefinery maintenance risks renewed oversupply in 1QInventories remain elevated, including oil held at seaThe International Energy Agency has raised its forecast for global oil demand growth this year, citing a firmer economic outlook and lower crude prices, but cautioned that supply is still expected to exceed consumption, leaving the market structurally oversupplied.In its latest monthly report, the…
Australia will release the December monthly employment report on Thursday at 0:30 GMT, with market participants anticipating a modest recovery in labor market conditions. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) is expected to announce that the country added 30,000 new jobs in the month, while the Unemployment Rate is forecast at 4.4%, up from the 4.3% posted in November. The Participation Rate is seen at 66.8%, pretty much unchanged from the previous 66.7%.The ABS reports both full-time and part-time positions through the monthly Employment Change. Generally speaking, full-time jobs entail working 38 hours or more per week, usually include additional…
Kameleon007/iStock via Getty ImagesF/m Investments on Wednesday filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to allow ownership of shares of its U.S. Treasury three-month bill exchange-traded fund (TBIL) on a permissioned blockchain ledger. If the exemptive application gets approved, the requested relief would Source link
US appeals court pauses lower court order restraining immigration agents’ use of force against Minnesota protesters Source link
The latest Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker is out and it’s up to 5.4% annualized in the fourth quarter from 5.3% previously. It’s a tough quarter to track because so much of the data has been screwed up by the long US government shutdown.Today’s construction spending numbers along with some recent data has been led to the change:The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2025 is 5.4 percent on January 21, up from 5.3 percent on January 14. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Labor…
Investor caution remains elevated amid geopolitical tensions, unsettled global equities, and a sharp rally in gold, which has climbed more than $100 to $4865. While the US Dollar (USD) is only marginally firmer, concerns over Fed autonomy, sticky inflation, and rising yields could prompt further trimming of US asset exposure in the months ahead, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report. Fed independence in focus amid rising market risks”There is clearly still a broader sense of unease among investors who remain concerned about the Trump’s Greenland ambitions and their potential fallout. Non-core major currencies which had underperformed…
The UK inflation data just dropped with a modest upside surprise, and while our pre-event watchlists identified potential GBP strength scenarios on pairs like GBP/CHF and GBP/AUD, the broader market environment is sending us wildly contradictory signals. Gold is screaming “danger!” while the dollar shrugs and equities stumble – classic symptoms of a market that hasn’t decided what it wants to be when it grows up. In these muddled conditions, the smartest play often isn’t picking a direction but rather identifying which technical levels and intermarket signals would need to align before a clearer probability edge emerges. …
If you’ve been watching the trade spat between the U.S. and Europe lately, you’ve probably heard a provocative idea floating around: What if Europe just dumped all its US assets? The scenario sounds dramatic. Fed up with President Trump’s tariff threats over Greenland and trade disputes, European governments coordinate a massive sell-off of U.S. Treasury bonds and stocks. Markets panic. Interest rates spike. The dollar crashes. America learns a painful lesson about pushing its allies too far. But here’s the question traders should be asking: Could this actually happen, and what would the fallout really look like? The Numbers: Europe’s…
Trump has officially arrived in Zurich now and is headed to Davos next for the World Economic Forum (WEF). As a reminder, his special address is still scheduled for 1330 GMT. So, it won’t be long now and media opportunities will have to be brief if Trump is to stick with the agenda today.As we await his address, equities are starting to feel the nerves and anxiousness again now. S&P 500 futures are down 0.2% with Nasdaq futures down 0.4%. And in Europe, the DAX is down 1.0% on the day with the CAC 40 index also lower by 0.4%…
Swiss National Bank (SNB) Chairman Martin Schlegel said during European trading hours on Wednesday that there is a high possibility of “negative inflation prints this year”, and, however, a few months of negative inflation “wouldn’t be a problem”.Market reactionThere seems to be little positive impact from SNB Schlegel’s comments on the Swiss Franc (CHF), despite being unfavorable technically. Still, USD/CHF trades 0.3% higher to near 0.7925. SNB FAQs The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is the country’s central bank. As an independent central bank, its mandate is to ensure price stability in the medium and long term. To ensure price stability,…