Author: FX
The declines in the major indices were symmetrically worse going from the Dow, to the S&P to the Nasdaq. Rounding, the Dow fell -1.00%, the S&P fell -1.50%, and the Nasdaq fell by -2.00%. All three indices also closed below its 200 day MA this week. The Dow 200 day MA is at 46562. The index closed at 45577.47The S&P 200 day MA is at 6621.73. The index closed at 6506.48The Nasdaq 200 day MA is at 22248.94. The index closed at 21647.61For the trading week: Dow fell -2.11%S&P fell -1.90%Nasdaq fell -2.07%Super Micro Computer tumbled on the back of…
The US Dollar (USD)i weakened this week, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) slipping back below 100.00 to 99.60 on Friday after a surge in the middle of the week driven by the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) decision to hold rates in the 3.50%-3.75% range. The war in Iran is nearing the end of its third week, with the Strait of Hormuz still effectively closed as Oil prices remain high. Reports indicate that the Pentagon is deploying thousands of additional Marines to the region, suggesting that a swift resolution is unlikely. Additionally, Fed’s Chair Jerome Powell has cautioned that inflationary pressures…
At a certain point, the Strait will open itselfI think Israel will be ready to end the war when the US wants it to endI don’t want to do a ceasefireWe can have dialogue but I don’t want to do a ceasefireOn Hormuz: It would be nice if China and Japan got involvedOn UK help: A very late response, they should have acted fasterSays lacks radar, aircraft, and leadership, with a firm stance against a ceasefireWe have unlimited ammunition and a lot of troopsOn oil prices, Trump said he expected worseRepeats that operation is “weeks ahead” of scheduleWe don’t need…
Gold (XAU/USD) price extended on Friday its losses for the eighth straight day, poised to end the week down by more than 8.50% as Oil prices continued to rally, boosting the haven appeal of the Greenback. The jump in US Treasury yields and market participants’ pricing in no rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) keep the yellow metal downward pressured.Gold set for 8% weekly loss as Fed rate cut bets vanish, Middle East conflict escalatesAt the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $4,560, down nearly 2% in the day. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the buck’s performance…
The market is sensing that energy prices will stay higher for longer as the US and Israel struggle to define a plan for peace and reopening the Strait of Hormuz.Trump today in a Truth Social post said it would be easy to re-open the strait and that the US was prepared to do it alone. The market doesn’t believe it as Brent crude oil is now up $4 to $112.68. There is also a crunch in natural gas, fertilizer, sulpher and other goods that normally flow from the area.With that, US 12-month inflation breakevens are now up to 5.3%. That’s…
As we head into the close, the major US stock indices are pressing to new lows for the day and the week, with downside momentum building. The S&P 500 is down nearly 1.5%, while the NASDAQ has extended losses to around -2.0%, reflecting broad-based selling pressure.This week marks an important technical shift, as both indices have now moved below their 200-day moving averages (Green line on the chart below) for the first time since May 2025. That break weakens the longer-term bullish bias and suggests that sellers are gaining firmer control.Focusing on the S&P 500, the index has now extended…
The Swiss Franc (CHF) trades flat against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, reversing part of its earlier gains as the Greenback eases slightly from daily highs. At the time of writing, USD/CHF is trading around 0.7878 after briefly touching the 0.7900 mark. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, is trading near 99.54 after retreating from an intraday high of 99.79.Despite the modest pullback in the Greenback, it remains up nearly 0.30% on the day, limiting follow-through selling pressure in USD/CHF. However, the Franc remains relatively firm across the…
Pentagon officials have made detailed preparations for deploying US ground forces into Iran, according to a CBS report.The report says Trump is deliberating whether to position ground forces in the region.”No, I’m not putting troops anywhere,” Trump said yesterday but quickly added: “If I were, I certainly wouldn’t tell you.”I wonder why this was leaked. I tend to think it might be something to bring Iran to the negotiating table but it could also be from those who think sending troops to the Middle East is a grave mistake.Finally, it could all be part of the usual planning and options…
CNN is out with a report highlighting the difficulty of reopening the Strait of Hormuz:US officials are furiously trying to avert a potential months-long closure of the Strait of Hormuz, privately acknowledging that reopening the key waterway is a problem without a clear solutionThe report from the Defense Intelligence Agency said it could remain shut from 1-6 months, citing four sources familiar.An official pushed back against the six-month scenario, saying: the six month closure of the Strait of Hormuz is an impossibility and completely unacceptable to the Secretary of WarOil is higher on this report but it’s notable that this…
A Bloomberg report citing an Iranian official says that Iran is sticking to its hardline position on the Strait of Hormuz and unwilling to discuss opening it while it’s under attack.The report says:Iranian officials have become reluctant to even discuss reopening the Strait of Hormuz as they focus on surviving the US-Israeli onslaught, according to a person involved in direct, high-level contacts with Tehran.It looks like early next week, we will have some kind of showdown between the US navy and Iran’s soldiers near the strait. How that unfolds is uncertain because President Trump confirmed there are no plans to…