- Prior was +922K
- Gasoline +382K vs -1658K expected
- Distillates -42K vs -2111K expected
WTI crude oil was trading higher by 45-cents to $89.89 ahead of the reelase and in a range of $89.33 to $90.98 today. Eyes are on the Middle East once again after Houthis struck three Saudi pumping stations. Earlier, there was also talk of an explosion heard in the Strait of Hormuz.
In a separate statement released from the IEA said that member nations expressed support for accelerated actions to release previously announced reserves as soon as possible. IEA members also supported the prioritization of the release of diesel stockpiles.
API data released late yesterday showed:
- Crude -2090K
- Gasoline -1370K
- Distillates +461K
Here are five terms to know before Wednesday’s EIA data.
The API data yesterday flagged this surprise draw so it’s not a huge surprise but it’s undoubtedly bullish. In contrast, the IEA statement and likely diesel reserve releases are negative for both crude and diesel and that’s the reaction we’re seeing at the moment.
For background, the US Energy Information Administration’s weekly petroleum report is a key release for oil traders, offering a snapshot of supply, demand and inventories in the world’s largest oil-consuming economy. It is normally published on Wednesdays at 10:30 a.m. Eastern, with holiday weeks sometimes shifting the schedule.
The headline figure is the weekly change in commercial crude inventories. A larger-than-expected draw generally supports oil prices, suggesting tighter supplies, while an unexpected build can weigh on the market. However, the details matter: changes in imports, exports and refinery activity can drive inventory swings without signalling a fundamental shift in consumption.
Traders also watch gasoline and distillate inventories, refinery utilization and stocks at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery hub for WTI futures. Seasonal maintenance, weather disruptions and the timing of tanker arrivals can make individual readings volatile, so trends across several weeks often provide a clearer picture.
An important distinction is that the headline crude figure excludes the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, or SPR. Changes in those government-held inventories are reported separately. Releases put additional crude into the market, potentially cushioning commercial inventory declines or contributing to builds. Consequently, commercial stocks alone may understate the depletion of combined commercial and strategic supplies.
The SPR provides an emergency buffer against supply disruptions. Releases have accompanied wars and other emergencies, including the 180-million-barrel drawdown announced in 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In March, President Trump authorized a 172-million-barrel SPR release as part of a coordinated 400-million-barrel international response to disrupted supplies.
By September 25, SPR holdings had fallen to 283.8 million barrels from 415.4 million immediately before the war—a net decline of approximately 131.7 million barrels, or 32%.
