Author: FX

DBS Group Research’s Radhika Rao highlights that Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas cut its policy rate by 25bps to 4.25%, citing weaker-than-expected recovery, softer confidence and delayed government spending. Official growth forecasts for 2026–27 were lowered, inflation projections nudged higher, and DBS still expects one more 25bps cut as BSP keeps the door open to further easing.BSP cuts with cautious forward guidance”The BSP lowered policy rate by 25bps, accompanied by a cautious guidance in light of weaker-than expected recovery, besides softer confidence indices, and delay in government spending on graft-led uncertainty.””Official growth forecasts were cut to 4.6% for 2026 and 5.9%…

The AUD/USD advances for the second straight day, up by 0.36% as the Greenback edges lower as US economic growth takes a toll while inflation accelerates towards the 3% threshold. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 0.7086, poised to end the week with gains of over 0.19%.AUD/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlookThe AUD/USD remains upward biased after buyers pushed the exchange rate past above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of 0.7034. Following that, they cleared 0.7050 and seem poised to challenge the 0.7100 mark.Bullish momentum remains intact, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) aiming higher, after bottoming…

Gold prices rally more than 1% on Friday after economic growth in the US decelerated, while inflation rose past the 3% threshold as depicted by the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) favorite inflation gauge. XAU/USD trades at $5,065 after bouncing off daily lows of $4,981.Bullion jumps as US growth slows and core PCE tops 3%, stagflation looming?Breaking news revealed that the US Supreme Court ruled against Trump’s tariffs, imposed under a law intended for national emergencies. This improved risk appetite, as US equities pared earlier losses and turned positive in the day. In the…

While most currencies have been tossing and turning from uncertainty, the Australian dollar has mostly been racking up gains across the board while the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) officially entered its tightening era. The latest Australian jobs report released earlier this month just handed RBA policymakers and Aussie bulls another reason to feel good. So what’s fueling this AUD run, and more importantly, can it keep going? Let’s break it down. What Happened: The January Jobs Report Australia’s labor market just printed another solid month of data, and markets definitely noticed. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS),…

MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Lloyd Chan notes that Bank Indonesia kept its 2026 growth forecast at 4.9%–5.7% and still expects inflation to stay within its 1.5%–3.5% target. However, upside inflation risks could weigh on the Rupiah if policymakers let the economy run hotter. Higher bond yields and overvalued 10‑year bonds add to policy trade-offs for BI as it considers gradual easing.Growth targets held as inflation risks tilt up”BI maintains its 2026 growth forecast at 4.9%–5.7% and continues to expect inflation to remain within its 1.5%–3.5% target range this year. However, inflation risks are skewed to the upside if policymakers allow…

The US Dollar (USD) held firm on Friday after the release of top-tier data, but the US Dollar Index (DXY) posted an acceptable weekly gain of almost 1%. The December Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) rose by 3% YoY, above market forecasts, signalling an uptick in inflation pressures and supporting the USD. Additionally, the US flash Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) fell to 1.4% from the 3% expected, impacting investors’ attraction to the Greenback.The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading near the 97.80 level, struggling to attract buyers after weaker-than-expected GDP. On Monday, the US will release the December Factory…

Markets:Gold up $87 to $5085WTI crude oil flat at $66.39US 10-year yields up 0.8 bps to 4.08%S&P 500 up 0.5%AUD leads, CAD lagsIt was a news-filled day that started with a big miss on GDP. You could sniff that downside surprise out (and we did) after yesterday’s trade data miss and this morning’s comments from Trump lamenting the drag from the government shutdown. The dollar was choppy afterwards, in part because the lower GDP came with higher PCE inflation numbers, leaving the Fed in a tough predicament that argues for more time on the sidelines.As a result, the July Fed…

UOB Global Economics & Markets Research highlights that Thailand’s economy remains a low‑growth, low‑inflation outlier, even as authorities project modest improvement in 2026 and 2027. Despite some upside risks to near‑term growth, UOB expects 2026 to mark the cyclical trough and continues to forecast a final 25 bps policy rate cut at the upcoming BOT meeting.Low growth and inflation justify further easing”Looking ahead, the authorities project 2026 growth at 1.5–2.5% (midpoint 2.0%) with headline inflation at -0.3 to 0.7%.””While noting the upside risks to the near-term growth outlook, we maintain our medium-term view that 2026 marks the cyclical trough (1.8%),…

I would have expected the Supreme Court decision to be a negative for gold, as it opens the pathway to a reversal of tariffs and a re-affirmation of the dollar-based system.Instead, the market seems to be taking it as a sign of further turmoil and uncertainty, which is gold bullish. The ongoing worries about a war in Iran are certainly underpinning that belief. Yesterday, Trump said Iran had 10 or “maybe 15” days to make a deal and he later confirmed that there could be a per-emptory strike to force Iran’s hand.On the seasonal side, the Lunar New Year holidays…

DBS Group Research economist Chua Han Teng forecasts Singapore core and headline inflation rising to 1.5% year-on-year in January 2026 from 1.2% in December, helped by low base effects and stronger services prices. Industrial production is expected to post a fifth month of expansion, with January growth jumping to 20.0% year-on-year on robust electronics and AI-related demand.Prices and tech-heavy output to firm”We expect both core and headline inflation in Singapore to rise to 1.5% yoy in January 2026, up from 1.2% yoy for both indicators in December 2025.””Price pressures have been picking up since 4Q25, following a period of weakness.””For…