Author: FX

US President Donald Trump announced he will invoke a 10% global tariff via Section 122. This is generally what was expected but it’s limited to 150 days unless extended by Congress. It also has some of its own legal challenges and is supposed to be invoked after consulting Congress but it looks like we’re going to skip that step.The thing is, Section 122 was designed for a specific macroeconomic scenario — a genuine balance-of-payments crisis like the kind that troubled policymakers in the 1970s. It was not designed as a general-purpose tariff authority. Using it to reconstruct a global tariff…

The NYT reports:President Trump is planning to invoke new trade authorities in response to the Supreme Court’s ruling overturning his sweeping tariffs, according to two people familiar with his plans, potentially including a new, across-the-board tariff on U.S. trading partners.This is no surprise, many government officials have said this was coming.The report cities:Section 301 (requires an investigation)Section 122 (limited to 150 days and has never been used)Don’t be surprised if Trump pulls the trigger as soon as possible on Section 122, which would put on across the board 15% tariffs but has carve outs for exemptions for some countries. This…

High risk warning: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all your initial investment; do not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. Educate yourself on the risks associated with foreign exchange trading and seek advice from an independent financial or tax advisor if you have any questions. Advisory warning: investingLive is not an investment advisor, investingLive provides references and…

We are stepping into what might be the most consequential week of the Q4 earnings season. The spotlight is squarely on the AI complex, but we also have a massive slate of consumer and enterprise tech names ready to set the tone for the rest of the quarter.Here is the breakdown of the key events and macro themes to watch.The Macro ThemesThe AI Bellwether: Wednesday afternoon is all about NVIDIA (NVDA). Investors are currently wrestling with elevated valuations and heavy AI spending in mega-cap technology stocks. The market will be looking for clear evidence that this massive infrastructure spend is…

The Atlanta Fed’s initial GDPNow estimate for Q1 2026 real GDP growth came in at 3.1% (annualized) as of February 20, pointing to a solid start to the year.At the same time, the advance estimate for Q4 2025 GDP, released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, showed growth of just 1.4% — a notable downside surprise. That figure came in 1.6 percentage points below the final GDPNow nowcast for the quarter, and well under the Atlanta Fed’s earlier 3.0% forecast.The miss wasn’t limited to the model. Economist expectations were also higher, with a Reuters survey showing estimates ranging from…

Market action in the wake of the tariff decision has been choppy.There aren’t many tariff/Supreme Court experts on trading desks, so markets are understandably confused. Trump and other administration officials have said many times that they have other opportunities to reconstitute tariffs. The initial reaction in markets largely suggests they’re taking that at face value.I’m not sure that’s the right take. The 6-3 decision wasn’t limited and it insists that Congress give clear authority on tariffs. Now Congress has done that with some authorities but those are time limited and/or require investigations. What’s clear is that he will no longer…

Trump says the Supreme Court decision is a ‘disgrace’ and that he will find other ways to impose them, according to CNN.The thing is, IEEPA tariffs are immediately voided and that’s 60% of tariff revenue. I’d imagine there is rush to get those over the border and that’s going to create a huge trade deficit in Feb/March. This could be one of those things where Apple is chartering flights again.First, I’m interested in short-term trading flows here. Aside from a brief administrative delay, tariffs will stop being collected immediately and that should create a rush to get imports over the…

According to the US Department of Commerce, headline Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation came in at 2.9% YoY in December. Core PCE, which strips out food and energy costs, ran a touch firmer at 3.0% YoY, suggesting underlying price pressures are still proving a bit sticky.On a monthly basis, the headline and core PCE rose by 0.4%, both prints coming in above initial estimates.Market reactionThe US Dollar Index (DXY) remains on a positive footing, trading close to the 98.00 region, or four-week tops, in the wake of the release. Inflation FAQs Inflation measures the rise in the price of a…

Most of India’s rate panel sees little room for rate cuts, minutes show Source link

The bounce here sees silver trade up by over 3% today to now above $81. It’s a solid recovery from the lows on Tuesday, which saw a dip just under the $72 level at the time. The price swings this week are not as volatile as what we’ve seen in late January to early February but they are still worth taking note of.For now, US-Iran tensions continue to help with buying appetite but traders are still wary of the volatility bouts from earlier this month. That especially as both gold and silver looks to be consolidating a fair bit. And…