Author: FX

The Mexican Peso loses traction against the Greenback, dropping over 0.65% during Friday’s North American session as the American currency benefits due to its safe-haven appeal as the US-Iran conflict is far from ending, despite holding talks to finish the war. The USD/MXN trades at 17.53, after bouncing off a daily low of 17.41.USD/MXN rises as Oil risks revive Dollar and Fed supportMarket sentiment deteriorated amid a sell-off on chip stocks. The rise in Oil prices fueled speculation that the Federal Reserve could hike rates and narrow the interest rate differential, which favoured the Mexican Peso, as it began its…

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Scotiabank’s Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note USD/JPY is little changed despite strong verbal intervention from Finance Minister Katayama, who warned of decisive action at any time. Markets remain unimpressed, given repeated rhetoric and limited impact from actual Yen buying. They recall recent data showing a significant sentiment shift toward the Japanese Yen among local retail FX traders, who may be more attuned to intervention risks.Katayama warnings and intervention expectations”The JPY is little changed despite Finance Minister Katayama deploying aggressive verbal intervention in its support earlier.””Katayama threatened “decisive action at any time”. That ranks as one of the strongest warnings…

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Here is an interesting chart from Luke Kawa. It shows monthly returns of Goldman Sachs’ basket of retail favorite stocks. It’s down 12% this month through yesterday, which would make it the worst month since April 2022.Note that the bad and good months tend to cluster as momentum takes over. There were a couple spectacular months just after the peak of the Iran war and with the release of Claude Mythos but profit taking has hit memory stocks and the war continues.Retail has had an incredible ability to buy the dip but this week we got a lower CPI report…

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United Overseas Bank (UOB) strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note USD/SGD has stabilised after an earlier sell-off, with spot around 1.2905 and intraday price action expected to stay confined between nearby support and resistance. They highlights building downside momentum on a 1–3 week horizon, with 1.2860 as a key trigger for a deeper decline, while 1.2930 caps the topside.Dollar-Singapore pair stuck in tight band”24-HOUR VIEW: USD fell to a low of 1.2876 two days ago. When it was at 1.2885 in the early Asian session yesterday, we highlighted that “the sharp increase in momentum points to further…

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British Pound slips for second straight day as Oil spike revives inflation fearsThe Pound Sterling retreats during the North American session, down 0.22% against the Greenback, as geopolitical tensions remained high, triggering a jump in Oil prices and heightening fears of a reacceleration of inflation. The GBP/USD trades at 1.3449 after peaking near 1.3480. Read More…GBP/USD Price Forecast: British Pound extends weakness in process of UK leadership changeThe British Pound (GBP) extends its decline against the US Dollar (USD) for the second straight day on Friday, trading 0.4% lower to near 1.3427 during the European trading session on Friday. The GBP/USD pair faces selling…

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The upcoming week will be dominated by the European Central Bank’s (ECB) interest rate decision, United Kingdom (UK) inflation and labor market figures, and preliminary global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data. Australian employment, New Zealand inflation and Canadian CPI figures will also attract attention.The US Dollar Index (DXY) trades slightly higher near 100.80 after mixed United States (US) economic releases. The United States (US) calendar will be relatively light, leaving the Greenback sensitive to Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations, global risk sentiment, and developments in energy markets.US Initial Jobless Claims are expected to rise slightly to 212K from 208K on Thursday.…

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Tthe market’s view of artificial intelligence is that one of the big winners will be the model-makers,. after all those are the people who invented it. Markets — at least private markets — have assigned huge valuations to the companies building the models, predominantly OpenAI and Anthropic.The history of great invesntions suggests investors should be careful with that conclusion.Some of the most transformative inventions ever created generated enormous benefits for society but surprisingly little wealth for their inventors. The World Wide Web was released royalty-free. TCP/IP became an open standard. GPS was made freely available. Linux became one of the…

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The escalation is showing no signs of stopping in the Middle East. There were reports that Iran targeted Kuwait yesterday and hit a desalization plant and now Iran’s semi-official Tasnim says that the Revolutionary Guard targeted a ship that ignored warning and tried to pass through Hormuz.Oil is having another big day with WTI up $3.53 to $82.48.I’m hanging onto reports that Israel possibly leading Lebanon could set the stage for a deal but there’s also a report that the US is preparing to fly more refuelling planes to Israel in order to escalation.Aside from oil, perhaps the bigger story…

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